We've started May on a warm note, but this is Colorado. You and I both know the weather can change quickly. We're not quite in the clear yet for full springtime activities but we're getting close.
The Climate Prediction Center's outlook for May has our area above average with temperatures, much like we've seen the last few months. Some models suggest the middle of the month may be a bit cooler relative to the start and end.
We're past the last average freeze in Pueblo (April 29th), but not quite there yet in Colorado Springs (May 8th). Lows should remain above freezing in the next week - but it'll be a close shave - with lows in the low 30s early next week. If you want to plant anything - you might want to wait another week. Hardy plants - good to go. Delicate plants should have a way to be brought inside for another couple of weeks just to be on the safe side.
Another big change this month is a significant increase in our severe weather potential. So, this is a solid time to review your family's severe weather plan. All threats generally remain moderate this month although hail concerns bump up significantly. On the eastern plains, May sees the 3rd highest average hail reports of any month all year - more than August. May also has the second most Red Flag Warning days of the year. That depends on fuel moisture though.
On the moisture front - we have equal chances for above and below average rainfall this month. We're heading out of an El Nino, and another large-scale climate influence, called the Madden-Julian oscillation, will also factor into the patterns we see this month. We should mainly see rain moving forward - but technically we can see snow through mid-May in Pueblo and early June in Colorado Springs. Now...even if we get "normal" rainfall this month, that's still a good thing for our water situation and for our plants.
We average about two inches in the Springs and a little over one and a half in Pueblo - which makes it one of the wetter months of the year for both cities. In the last 5 years, we've been above that longer term average...with 1.9 inches in Pueblo, and 2.7" in Colorado Springs. But that hides the story...last year, you probably remember the Springs getting walloped by rain. We got more than 5 inches! In 2022, Pueblo saw the same with nearly 5 inches. On the other hand, in 2018, we only got about 6/10ths of an inch in Pueblo. Like anything in Colorado, our averages hide extreme variability.
What we can say though - especially given the large scale climate patterns, is that while we can get snow above treeline all the way through June (even into July), it's generally a nice month to be outside and the trends suggest this year will be nice too.
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