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Memorial Day Weekend 14er Outlook

The current continuous snow line in Colorado
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and last updated

Colorado's 14ers are one of our biggest summer activities for Colorado residents and visitors alike.

According to the Colorado 14ers Initiative, 260 thousand people hiked one of our 58 tallest peaks in 2023, the most recent year data is available, and that was - low - compared to prior years. If you're someone using the unofficial start of summer to hit the trails, you should still be prepared for winter conditions.

This is the estimated snow line as of May 23rd. I calculated this using a composite of recent 14er condition updates, CAIC information, and Colorado SWE data. These are averages for various ranges but intra-range variability exists. For example, inset couloirs and gullies classically hold better snow than exposed ridgelines on any face. This remains true this season. However, this map reflects the average height for a normal slope to hold continuous snow.

Snowpack is well below average. The Colorado Avalanche Information Center (CAIC) tells me that the snow level is currently sitting at approximately 11,500 feet statewide. It's slightly higher in the southern mountains and slightly lower in the northern mountains.

Pikes Peak has patchy snow below and within the trees, with the patchy snow extending farther up mountain on the eastern and southern faces. The western and northern faces hold continuous snow about 500 feet lower than the eastern and southern faces.

But the snowpack changes a lot depending on which side of the mountain you want to climb. Let's use Pikes Peak as an example. You'll find patchy snow near treeline.

Northern slopes get less direct sunlight and melt out slower. You'll find the lowest continuous snow line on the northern face of Pikes Peak, and other mountains.

Snow increases above treeline, mostly on west, north, and east facing slopes. You'll find bare patches above treeline on southern slopes and exposed ridgelines.

The standard route of Mount Shavano is mostly clear and in summer conditions this weekend - making it a good choice if you are not experienced with winter or snow travel. There is one exception here where the standard route crosses a winter route called the Angel of Shavano. It goes up the gully in this graphic left of the standard route (in orange). It crosses the standard route close to the summit. Note that Shavano is not considered one of the "easiest" 14ers and should not be attempted if you don't already have class 2 14er experience.

But some routes are already snow free - generally routes that follow a prominent, exposed ridge with patchy tree cover at lower elevations facing east.
For example, the standard route up Mount Shavano, a peak in our central mountains, is mostly snow free at this point.

The connecting ridge between the summit of Shavano, and a nearby 14er, Tabeguache (pronounced Tab-a-watch) has consolidated but continuous snow and requires winter gear to cross.

But the connecting saddle to Tabeguache still holds patchy deep snow.

Avalanche Danger on - Saturday and Sunday will generally be low. However, above tree line, on northerly facing slopes, you could trigger an avalanche in the afternoon on steep slopes where you sink in unsupportive snow.

Despite the below-average snowpack, you need to be avalanche aware. The CAIC previously had above treeline zones Saturday at a moderate 2-out-of-5 risk. This has been downgraded now to a 1-out-of-5 low risk. However, there remains some level of elevated risk near the snow line where the snow is thin, and in rocky steep areas. This risk is greatest above and near treeline, particularly on northerly facing slopes, and the concern is for wet slab and loose wet avalanches.

A loose wet avalanche fell naturally in the red gully on Crestone Peak - a 14er in the Sangre de Cristo mountains - on Thursday.

But gullies and shaded slopes are also at higher risk. This photo shows a loose wet avalanche on Crestone Peak that occurred on a south-facing gully on the peak's standard route on Thursday. This is the typical ascent route for this peak. Which goes to show - while general avalanche risk is low, steep slopes at very high elevations can still avalanche.

High elevation avalanche avoidance tips

Wet slab and loose wet avalanches occur due to poor freezes leading to water running through the snowpack. You can avoid these risks by starting and ending 14er hikes early. If you start falling through the snow and it won't hold your weight on a steep slope, that's a sign that it is not safe.

A non-exhaustive list of things you should bring if you're hiking a 14er during this holiday weekend. You should also bring a first aid kit, and the rest of the 10 essentials.

For gear this weekend, you should bring snowshoes and spikes for your feet, and a dual-layer system with a breathable base and an insulating mid-layer.

Have fun, and stay safe!

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