COLORADO (KOAA) — Record-breaking heat and elevated fire danger across Southern Colorado may have snow far from mind, but the lack of snow is exactly why fire threats are elevated.
El Niño is here, according to NOAA, and for those whose livelihoods depend on snow, that news brings cautious optimism.
It was La Niña that delivered very little snow last winter. Now, with El Niño taking hold, local ski shops are watching the forecast closely.
The owner of a local ski shop said she welcomes the change, even if the science behind it isn't always easy to follow.
"I think a lot of people are confused about what El Niño and La Niña is…but I'm hoping El Niño brings a ton of snow this year," she said.
El Niño is a warming of waters in the equatorial Pacific Ocean. Meteorologists classify El Niño events as weak, moderate, strong, or very strong, based on how much warmer than average ocean temperatures become. The current forecast suggests this year's El Niño could reach the very strong category.
El Niño tends to push the jet stream south during fall and winter months. Colorado can see significant snow events during El Niño winters, and some years bring above-average snowfall statewide. However, when averaging across all El Niño years, the trend is less clear. A very strong El Niño can sometimes push the jet stream too far south, which can actually limit moisture reaching Colorado.
The ski shop owner recalled one memorable El Niño winter from the 1990s.
"I do remember jumping off our second story deck in the snow…we lived in Woodland Park. And I think we got six feet. It was probably in the 90s. I remember that being a huge dump," she said.
While La Niña is associated with lower-than-average snowfall, El Niño brings renewed hope for those counting on a strong snow season. Local ski shops are already preparing.
"We've been buying all summer…we just need to give confidence back to people that they're going to spend money and actually get a chance to get out and use it," she said.
Still, uncertainty remains. If this El Niño is as strong as forecast, there is little historical precedent to predict exactly what it will bring. And if the jet stream ends up too far south, Colorado may not receive the moisture needed for a strong snow season. The deck is ever so slightly tilted in skiers' favor, but a lot will revolve around what El Niño does during the late winter and early spring.
If conditions persist through the spring of 2027, which are historically Colorado's snowiest months...there is a bit more historical precedent to suggest above average snowfall is likely.
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