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Colorado's snowpack sits at just 14% of average as ski resorts open with mostly artificial snow.
Statewide snowpack at 14 percent of median corresponds to the third percentile of snowpack conditions for today's date. That means 97 out of 100 generic years should have more snow statewide than current conditions. Therefore, Colorado ski resorts are relying heavily on snowmaking machines to open for the season.
Among open resorts, Winter Park leads the state with five open runs, while Keystone offers four runs and Arapahoe Basin has one. All three resorts report an 18-inch base depth.
Despite challenging conditions, three additional resorts are opening this weekend. Breckenridge and Copper Mountain opened Thursday, while Loveland is set to open Friday. Eldora and Vail are projected to open next week. Cold-enough temperatures have allowed for decent snowmaking conditions. It's worth keeping in mind that machine made snow has a higher water content, and less air, than natural snow (especially in Colorado) which makes it icier and harder than our typical snowpack. For riding - that translates to faster runs, and slightly less forgiving terrain. That's typical early-season (regardless), but it's more applicable than usual this fall.
Weekend temperatures at Breckenridge will reach the upper 30s to low 40s, while Arapahoe Basin's higher elevation will keep temperatures in the 20s. Skies should remain dry with patchy clouds.
A weak weather system may bring a couple inches of snow to northern mountains Friday evening through mid-Saturday, with some flakes reaching Arapahoe Basin in a best-case scenario. If snow growth processes in the clouds work efficiently this would lead to a bit of natural powder on the ground for skiing Sunday. Winter Park is best positioned among the open resorts right now to see a few inches, particularly upper slopes.
Wind will be a significant factor this weekend, with gusts reaching 30 to 40 mph Friday and Saturday. Conditions will improve Sunday with lighter winds throughout the day.
I'd suggest Sunday as the best skiing day due to calmer wind conditions.
There are early signals for a potential pattern change around mid-November that could bring much-needed snowfall to Colorado's mountains. Stay tuned.
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