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More showers and thunderstorms today with isolated severe storms on the plains

Posted at 6:58 AM, May 29, 2024

Today’s Forecast:
Some of us saw storms yesterday, including several severe thunderstorms over the eastern plains, and good moisture in the mountains. Others saw menacing skies but no rain. We'll rinse and repeat today with a similar set up. Low pressure to our north will send energy to southern Colorado this afternoon. Meanwhile, moisture from yesterday's storms is lingering over the mountains and eastern plains. This morning will be almost identical to Tuesday's morning - with more clouds developing early thanks to the moisture in the mountains.

After 12:00PM, showers and storms will again fire off over the high country. The I-25 corridor in general will have a 50% chance of seeing a shower or storm this afternoon - with some of us getting a good drink of water, and others seeing dark clouds and hearing distant thunder. If you do see a storm this afternoon, it has the potential to be strong. The Storm Prediction Center has Colorado Springs and Pueblo in a 1-out-of-5 marginal risk for severe weather this afternoon - primarily for damaging winds to 60 mph and an isolated storm capable of producing quarter sized hail. Over the eastern plains, we once again have a 2-out-of-5 slight risk of severe thunderstorms, with damaging winds and large hail the main concerns. A weak isolated landspout tornado is also possible in the afternoon over far southeastern Colorado, where winds will be changing direction with height in the sky.

Colorado Springs forecast: High: 80; Low: 48.
Partly to mostly cloudy in the Olympic City this morning as we look forward to the Air Force Thunderbirds practicing this afternoon. Moisture from last night's storms is hanging over the Pikes Peak Region creating the cloudy conditions. We'll have a few peaks of sun through the early afternoon with temperatures in the mid 70s during the lunch hour. After 1:00PM, we'll have a 50% chance of showers and storms through 8:00PM tonight. You may not get a storm just like yesterday. If you don't, you'll see one in the distance at some point this afternoon. We'll hope the thunder holds off long enough for the Thunderbirds practice this afternoon. Storms will again fire first over the mountains today before moving east.

The Storm Prediction Center has Colorado Springs in a 1-out-of-5 "Marginal" risk for a severe storm this afternoon. We'll have a fair amount of storm fuel this afternoon but upper level winds aren't the most favorable for widespread severe concerns. The most likely storm type we'll see is called a "pulse severe" storm - like popcorn, it'll grow quickly, and then dump out a good amount of moisture and potentially some wind over the course of 90 minutes before weakening. This concern will be very isolated. Better chances for strong storms will again be on the eastern plains.

Pueblo forecast: High: 87; Low: 51.
Mostly sunny skies start the day in the Steel City. That sun will warm you up quickly with temperatures in the upper 70s to low 80s by the lunch hour. After 2:00PM, you'll have a shower and thunderstorm chance again today, but given the orientation of the arriving energy, the chance overall is lower than yesterday. It's another day where the county as a whole gets some storms, but at your home, you'll have a 40% chance of seeing one yourself. Time wise, the best chance is from 2:00PM-8:00PM with the latest trends and data I've looked at pointing to the later afternoon and PM commute time frame (3/4PM - 8PM) being the best chance. Severe weather is generally unlikely for you today, but a rogue strong storm is possible. The Storm Prediction Center does have a "Marginal" 1-out-of-5 chance for a severe storm this afternoon. Otherwise, it's a warm day thanks to southerly warm winds and the morning sunshine. This afternoon, skies will be partly cloudy.

Canon City forecast: High: 83; Low: 52.
After starting the morning with mainly clear skies and clouds to the west, clouds will increase as the morning continues. Showers and storms are possible today after 12:00PM through sunset. Severe weather is unlikely, and I expect storm coverage to be about 30% - meaning you have a 30% chance of seeing rain at your home. If you don't, you'll see dark clouds nearby and may experience some gusty winds from thunderstorm outflow over other areas.

Woodland Park forecast: High: 72; Low: 42.
Nice and relatively cloud free in the city above the clouds early today with increasing clouds through noon. Expect storms to fire off like popcorn after 12:00PM today - both in how they look as they grow in the sky, and how quickly they'll develop. Severe weather is unlikely, but a storm or two could contain gusty winds and small hail in Teller County. I expect around 50% storm coverage this afternoon for you - meaning there's a 50% chance your home sees some rain today. Active, not a washout, and typical springtime weather for you.

Tri-Lakes forecast: High: 70s; Low: 40s.
Partly cloudy this morning, turning mostly cloudy this afternoon with a 50% chance of showers and thunderstorms, with a low chance for a strong storm. Storm chances begin at noon, and continue through sunset, with more than one round of showers and storms possible. It's looking likely that the PM commute over the Palmer Divide will have some wet sections.

Plains forecast: High: 70s/80s; Low: 50s.
Another day of active weather for you. With plenty of moisture, and good instability in place, thunderstorms will be likely this afternoon. You'll have a 70% chance of seeing at least some rain at your home today. Storms will fire first in the southern tier - in Las Animas County, moving northeast during the afternoon as additional storms form over I-25 and move east. Several of these storms are likely to be strong to severe in the southeastern plains - Baca, Otero, Prowers, Crowley, Bent, and Kiowa counties. Primary concerns will be for strong wind gusts to 60 mph, and isolated large hail between the size of a quarter and the size of a ping pong ball (1-1.5"), and a brief weak isolated landspout tornado.

Walsenburg and Trinidad forecast: High: 80/81; Low: 48/52.
After a mainly clear morning, showers and storms will develop after 12:00PM today with storm chances continuing through around 7:00PM. A strong storm with small hail and gusty winds is possible, but widespread severe weather is unlikely.

Mountains forecast: High: 60s/70s; Low: 40s/50s.
Another active day - starting with partly cloudy skies and turning increasingly cloudy with widespread thunderstorms over the mountaintops through the afternoon.

Extended outlook forecast:

With more energy surging into the state, Thursday remains active. A cold front will move through during the morning. As it does so, I expect a small-scale low pressure to develop over the southeastern plains. The exact placement of this low will be important for Thursday's weather conditions - and that will itself depend on where the cold front stalls out. But, the overall picture is another day of scattered showers and storms, with a couple strong storms possible including along I-25. Highs will be a few degrees cooler thanks to the cold front. I expect Thursday to have the best widespread severe weather concern of this stretch of active weather, particularly along the eastern plains, as storms are likely to consolidate into a line as they move east - bringing a strong wind threat with them. Stay tuned to forecast updates tonight from my colleague Meteorologist Alan Rose.

We'll again see storms on Friday but they'll be weaker with less energy in place, and that trend continues into Saturday. By the end of the weekend, a dome of tropical high pressure will begin pushing north into the western part of the country, warming highs into the upper 80s for the first time this year. But - despite the "tropical" name, this is going to be a dry air mass.

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