A potentially record-breaking El Niño is expected to drive the weather across much of the U.S. this winter, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s winter outlook released Thursday. It’s arriving as families are already dealing with high energy costs.
NOAA’s outlook for December through February favors warmer-than-average temperatures across the northern U.S., wetter-than-average conditions across the southern U.S. from California to Florida and along the Eastern Seaboard, and drought improvement for most of the country. The agency’s Climate Prediction Center puts the odds at 83% that this El Niño will be stronger than any event on record since 1950 during the October through December period.
Ken Graham, director of NOAA’s National Weather Service, said a very strong El Niño typically shifts the jet stream south and east, raising the chances of stormier weather across the South. He warned that while more rain and snow could help drought-stricken areas, too much precipitation on dry soil can fuel destructive flash floods and mudslides.
NOAA expects drought to improve or end in the Southwest, Southern Great Plains, Southeast and parts of the East Coast, while conditions are favored to develop or worsen across parts of the northern Rockies, northeastern Oregon and eastern Washington.
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For farmers in the West, the forecast can make or break next year’s harvest. Davis County farmer Tyson Roberts told Scripps News that drought has cut his yields the last couple of years, but this fall’s rain has given him hope.
“The fact that it’s raining a lot right now is a really good start to the water year, so we’re optimistic for that,” Roberts said.
That relief isn’t guaranteed. NOAA gives parts of the northern Mountain West elevated odds of a drier winter, and areas of the Intermountain West have equal chances of a wetter or drier season.
Weather is only part of the squeeze. Utah Farm Bureau President Val J. Rigby told Scripps News that farmers have dealt with “record high fertilizer and fuel prices” this year.
Those fuel costs are hitting homes too. The U.S. Energy Information Administration expects home heating oil to average $5.26 a gallon this winter, up 34% from a year ago. EIA Administrator Tristan Abbey said households that rely on heating oil face higher prices because distillate markets remain tight.
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A warmer Northeast should help a little. Because consumption is expected to fall in a milder winter, households that primarily heat with oil are projected to spend about 21% more. Households heating with natural gas or propane, about half of the country, are expected to spend less.
Energy is also pushing up costs across the economy. Wholesale prices rose 1.3% in September and 6.3% over the past year, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the largest annual increase since December 2022, with energy prices up 10.8% for the month.
At the grocery store, El Niño’s biggest impact may come from overseas. Drought and wildfires are already spreading across Southeast Asia, home to most of the world’s palm oil, an ingredient in everything from cookies to laundry detergent.
“Between Malaysia and Indonesia, they produce 85% of the global palm oil supply, so definitely there will be impacts on global trade,” Kareff Rafisura, chief of the Disaster Risk Reduction Division at the U.N. Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific, told the Associated Press.
Analysts at Goldman Sachs estimate this El Niño could push global food commodity prices up more than 15%, according to the AP. Coffee and chocolate are also exposed, and economists say tropical commodity prices can stay elevated for up to a year after an El Niño.
New research from the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco finds El Niños pose material upside risk for U.S. prices, with longer-run effects driven by food and core services.
