Tonight's Forecast:
After yesterday's isolated severe, and more widespread general thunderstorms, today has been unseasonably chilly. Low cloud cover and persistent upslope flow throughout the day have held temperatures steady and tamped down thunderstorm energy.
Tonight, we keep the same pattern. However, a weak upper level disturbance - part of a larger area of low pressure - will roll in from the west during dinner time. This additional source of energy should spark off a new round of showers and thunderstorms that will impact Canon City, Colorado Springs, Woodland Park, and the Pueblo areas with the showers and storms dissipating as they continue east into the plains. Given the mediocre instability in the sky tonight, storm concerns will be lightning, and isolated small hail in the strongest cells.
After the showers depart, the evening remains mostly cloudy as upslope flow keeps low-level moisture trapped against the mountains.
Colorado Springs forecast: Low: 43; High: 58;
Cloudy - with a round of showers and t-storms likely early this evening. Then, cloudy with patchy fog and drizzle overnight. Southeast winds at 10-15 mph.
Pueblo forecast: Low: 49; High: 64;
Cloudy - with a round of showers and weak t-storms early this evening. Then cloudy with patchy fog and isolated drizzle. Southeast winds at 5-15 mph.
Canon City forecast: Low: 49; High: 62;
Cloudy, with a round of showers and t-storms likely early this evening. Then cloudy with the cloud deck dropping and turning to fog late tonight with occasional drizzle. East winds at 5-10 mph.
Woodland Park forecast: Low: 39; High: 55;
Not above the clouds tonight unfortunately - at least not above all of them. Mostly cloudy with a shower, t-storm, or two with the best potential before 9PM. After that, mainly cloudy with southeast winds at 5-15 mph.
Tri-Lakes forecast: Low: 40s; High: 50s;
Cloudy with isolated thunderstorms possible. Fog developing late. Southeast winds at 10-15 mph.
Plains forecast: Low: 40s; High: 50s/60s;
Cloudy with isolated showers, a rumble or two if you're lucky. East winds at 10-15 mph.
Walsenburg and Trinidad forecast: Low: 48/45; High: 64/67;
Cloudy with showers and thunderstorms, mainly before 9 PM. East winds at 10-15 mph, decreasing to 5-10 mph overnight.
Mountains forecast: Low: 30s; High: 50s/60s;
Mostly cloudy with scattered thunderstorms, mainly before midnight. Then cloudy with patchy fog and drizzle. East winds at 5-15 mph.
Extended outlook forecast:
A literal rinse and repeat on Memorial Day. Morning low clouds, some drizzle, and patchy fog. That will likely dissipate a bit by late morning, and if we can get a bit more sunshine than we saw today, we'll get more instability for afternoon thunderstorms making them possibly a bit stronger with gusty wind being the main concern. The morning, while cool, will not have t-storms, so if you want to head outside that's your best bet if you pack a layer. This is true almost anywhere you name, although clouds are likely to hang tougher the further east you go in the state.
Storms should fire over the highest summit around noon, lower summits around 1, and move off the high country by 2. After that, storms are possible along I-25 - although I only expect 1 to 2 rounds of showers and storms all day, in between which, it will not be raining. Storms could last anywhere from 15-45 minutes. A few could be strong; the best potential will be the places that get the most sunshine in the morning. The main concern tomorrow is isolated hail, gusty winds, and frequent lightning.
As the low pivots to the east, skies will be a bit clearer Monday night.
Daily PM storms are possible all of next week. A ridge of high pressure approaching Tuesday will somewhat tamp down storm potential. Then, an incoming cold front Wednesday at the same time as the high shifts south, brings back more moisture. Storm chances are about equal on Monday and Wednesday, and lower Tuesday. We'll get storms each day - the odds of one at your home are lowest Tuesday.
Storms are possible again in the afternoon Thursday, becoming more isolated but remaining possible for now Friday-Sunday. It's likely everyone gets at least one dry day between Friday and Sunday, but I'm still nailing down which day in each city.
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