Tonight's Forecast:
It's the literal calm before the storm tonight across southern Colorado - high pressure remaining in control of the pattern and dry low-level air both mean fairly quiet conditions.
Colorado Springs forecast: Low: 42; High: 50;
Mostly clear. Southeast winds at 5-10 mph.
Pueblo forecast: Low: 42; High: 50;
Mostly clear. Southeast winds at 5-15 mph.
Canon City forecast: Low: 45; High: 50;
Partly cloudy, becoming mainly clear between 1 and 3 AM. Variable winds at 5-10 mph.
Woodland Park forecast: Low: 36; High: 50;
Mostly cloudy early becoming mainly clear well after midnight. Southwest, then west, then northwest winds at 5-10 mph.
Tri-Lakes forecast: Low: 40s; High: 50;
Mostly clear. Southeast winds at 5-10 mph.
Plains forecast: Low: Low 40s; High: 50;
Mostly clear with southeast winds at 10-15 mph.
Walsenburg and Trinidad forecast: Low: 40/41; High: 50;
Partly cloudy. South winds at 5-10 mph.
Mountains forecast: Low: 30s; High: 50s/60s;
Mostly cloudy with isolated showers before midnight. Variable wind that averages out to southwest at 5-10 mph.
Extended outlook forecast:
Sunday morning starts calm - if you have hiking or mountain biking plans, I'd suggest getting them done before noon. Moisture will stream into the southern and central mountains through the morning. I expect this to result in early storm initiation over any higher mountain (so, a day where you want to be off summits by noon). It'll take longer for this action to work to the I-25 corridor. But - it will. I expect a blend of moisture, upward motion, and atmospheric instability and heat to lead to the best thunderstorm chance from 3:00 PM - 10:00 PM. Instability is decent, but wind shear (which helps storms organize) is not. In general - your good outside into late afternoon, but be weather aware. When the dark clouds form, it's time to head inside.
Monday and Tuesday remain headline weather days and I expect significant to high impacts for our region. In Woodland Park and all foothills, a wintry mix and snow - with thunder - is in the cards Monday and Tuesday. Some of this will accumulate, but more will melt on contact. Among other issues this means your commutes both days will be impacted (icy/snowy).
Along I-25, we'll see morning rain on Monday, and afternoon thunderstorms. An isolated storm may be strong, potential limited by mediocre thunderstorm energy. The SE plains have the best chance - with the most instability. Otherwise, the main concern is for isolated flooding - particularly anywhere that sees what we call thunderstorm training, where multiple thunderstorms form in a line and slowly move over the same locations. Takeaway: Monday is wet, even though it won't rain all day.
On Tuesday, colder temperatures and another surge of moisture and energy lead to a mainly heavy rain threat, with limited lightning. Again, we'll be watching for isolated flooding, particularly in zones that were well hit on Monday and have saturated ground. There will be "breaks in the action" as I like to say - but unless you like suffering...I'd again suggest avoiding planning long outdoor activities. In total, we'll get a great drink of water with 1.5-2" of rain likely region wide between Sunday and Tuesday night.
A few remnant showers persist Wednesday. Monday through Wednesday will be unseasonably cold with all the rain and clouds - highs only in the mid-50s.
Thursday and Friday will retain storm chances in the afternoons in the mountains, but that's about it. Temperatures will also warm back up.
Thunderstorm chances then return on Saturday. Also a bright note to end on: Saturday will be the first 8:00 PM sunset of the year for most of southern Colorado - sunsets will be at 8:00 PM or later for 91 days, until August 9th.
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