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Breezy with a few showers this afternoon with a strong storm on the east plains

A Cold front associated with a lee-side low pressure system leads to shower chances on the I-25 corridor, and a strong storm chance on the E Plains this evening
Posted at 6:13 AM, May 03, 2024
and last updated 2024-05-03 09:54:41-04

Today’s Forecast:

After starting the day with a few clouds, the end to our work week is a mixed bag weather wise (but certainly much better than last weekend!). An upper-level low is continuing to trudge eastward over the northern plains. It's already sent us a few rounds of energy and fronts, and it's got a couple more up its sleeve before finally leaving us over the weekend. As a result, temperatures continue their modest wobble-around today: after a cooler Thursday following a cold front...today will be warmer by a good 8-10 degrees warmer.

We'll start off with a few low clouds that should clear out as the morning progresses. We'll have southerly winds in place today. You'll feel breezes this afternoon - they'll strengthen from around noon on...20-25 mph along the I-25 corridor, 30-40 in the southern tier and eastern plains. This southerly flow will help to bring in some moisture - which should result in patchy cloud cover this afternoon. Showers will develop ahead of a cold front moving in from the north around rush hour - they will be isolated. It'll be windier as the front moves through. Winds shift to a northerly direction and gust to 30-45 mph. Showers will be isolated in the Pikes Peak Region, with better chances on the eastern plains. In fact, a couple of severe thunderstorms are possible during the late afternoon over our southeastern counties - Kiowa, Bent, Otero, Prowers, and Baca (see the plains forecast for details). Once the front moves through, drier air will work in, which clears clouds out heading into our Friday night.

Colorado Springs forecast: High: 70; Low: 34.
Low clouds early this morning which will dissipate by the lunch hour with mainly sunny skies. Breezes kick in during the afternoon out of the south - noticeable but not a nuisance (15-20 mph with some gusts to 30 mph). Stronger wind gusts as a cold front moves through (to around 40-45 mph) during the PM commute. That will also give us the chance for a shower and perhaps a rumble of thunder.

Pueblo forecast: High: 80; Low: 40.
A beautiful sunny start to the day in the steel city with clouds off to the east and north. This afternoon, expect mainly sunny skies - with clouds increasing as a cold front approaches during the PM rush hour. Isolated showers are then possible heading into this evening with low chances overall. More notable will be the winds. We're looking at 20-30 mph wind gusts during the afternoon with a few gusts to 40 - with the front itself we might get a few 45 mph gusts.

Canon City forecast: High: 75; Low: 41.
Pleasant today in Canon City with a light breeze. Partly sunny this afternoon with southwest winds at 15-25 mph by late afternoon. Clouds increase this evening but you should generally stay dry.

Woodland Park forecast: High: 62; Low: 28.
Beautiful end to the week in the city above the clouds. It will be breezy though with winds increasing after around 12PM into the 15-25 mph range, with gusts to 40-45 mph during late afternoon.

Tri-Lakes forecast: High: 60s; Low: 30s.
Breezy today - southwest winds at 15-30 mph gusting to 45 mph...but that'll mean nice temperatures in the upper 60s (a couple low 70s at the lower elevations). Mainly sunny much of the day. As a cold front approaches this afternoon, clouds will increase for a couple of hours. You'll know the front moved through from that, and from the big shift in wind direction and a quick 8-10 degree cooldown.

Plains forecast: High: 70s; Low: Upper 30s.
Partly cloudy starting off today - continuing into the early afternoon. Later today, a low pressure system forming due to interaction of some energy with the mountains to the west will lead to storm development. These storms will fire off around the PM rush and track northeast. Supercells are the expected storm type with decent instability and good wind shear both in place but coverage looks isolated. Storms should fire off in the early afternoon. While there are some differences between the models on the specifics, any of these cells would be capable of producing hail to at least 1" in diameter, and 60 mph wind gusts. Tracks will generally be northeast, although small-scale details mean some supercell would likely move more directly east between around 2:00PM and 8:00PM. A brief, weak spin-up tornado cannot be ruled out, so we'll watch this during the afternoon.

Walsenburg and Trinidad forecast: High: 74/75; Low: 38/39.
Sunny skies with a few clouds over the mountains...a great end to your week. But like everywhere else: a breezy afternoon. Southwest winds at 10-15 mph increase to 20-30 mph during the afternoon with gusts to 40 mph. Cold front swings through very late tonight ushering in clouds if you're out after midnight.

Mountains forecast: High: 60s; Low: Low 30s.
Mostly sunny and windy with southwest winds at 20-30 mph, gusting to 45 mph with partly cloudy skies by the evening.

Extended outlook forecast:

Saturday is generally going to be nice in southern Colorado, but our wind direction will once again come into play. Friday night, northerly winds keep us dry. On Saturday, southerly "return flow" winds return, which will pull in moisture from the Gulf of Mexico. But, due to the cold front on Friday, we'll be a bit cooler: in the low to mid 60s during the afternoon. Meanwhile, a weak upper-level wave will move through the mountains, kicking off a few afternoon showers there with a rumble of thunder possible.

Southwest winds will then push that energy onto the Front Range corridor during the early evening giving us another shower chance Saturday night. We'll change gears beginning on Sunday as our next large-scale weather system approaches. Temperatures bob around a bit more as we head back into the 70s Sunday and kick off a long period of windy weather.

A large upper-level low will approach from the Pacific Northwest. It will take a slightly more southerly track than the low affecting us today and it'll be a slow mover. This will result in windy conditions Sunday through Tuesday, and gusty winds on Wednesday. This will lead to an extended period of enhanced fire danger for southern Colorado - with the specifics depending on our fuel moisture as we've begun our spring green-up.

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