Today’s Forecast:
Clouds across much of southern Colorado this morning thanks to a blend of evaporation from the heavy rain (and hail) that fell last night, plus upslope flow following a cold front that was associated with those storms. Many parts of southern Colorado picked up over an inch of rain, with pockets of our eastern counties getting well over 2 inches.
The clouds will be slow to clear today - first clearing in the mountains, then I-25, then the plains later in the day. With plenty of moisture to work with, storm chances today will mainly depend on where we get the most sunshine - and therefore heating. Isolated strong storms are possible in the Front Range, central, and southern mountains today with large hail, strong wind gusts of 60-70 mph, and an isolated flood threat all possible from the strongest storms. As usual, it's important to remember most storms will not be this strong.
Because of the slow clearing, and the cold front - highs today will run about 10 degrees below average along I-25, and 15 degrees below average along the eastern plains. In the mountains, with the increased sunshine, highs will only be around 5 degrees below average. These clouds mean temperatures will climb slowly this morning - by southern Colorado standards - only rising about 10 degrees from morning lows by noon. For lifelong Coloradans, to provide a frame of reference - cities east of the Mississippi River will often only see a change between their low and high temperature of around 10-15 degrees on an average summer day...rather than 30 to 40. We'll keep notable low-level humidity in the air today too...you'll notice it...not common for us either!
If you're going to the Olympic Museum today for the festival, you can expect thunderstorm chances to be greatest in the middle to late afternoon. That's not a promise that you'll get one, though if you don't you'll certainly see one nearby that will likely provide you with some gusty wind.
If you're going hiking today, or visiting Green Mountain Falls for the final day of the Green Box Art Festival - be back to your car, or able to head into a building, by the middle afternoon. There is an isolated risk of flash flooding today from storms in the mountains. While the risk is - low: if you're hiking in a valley, near a stream, or other low-lying area and you see dark clouds and heavy rain nearby, be prepared to hike to higher ground. The Weather Prediction Center places most of the Front and Central mountains under a marginal, 1-out-of-4 risk of flash flooding today.
Colorado Springs forecast: High: 77; Low: 55.
Clouds through the morning, clearing by lunchtime. Temperatures will be slow to climb before then - it will feel cool, and a bit damp, with plenty of moisture in the air. Isolated thunderstorms this afternoon. While you may not see one (storm coverage of 3-in-10), if you do, it is likely to be strong or severe with strong wind gusts and hail both possible. If you see the dark clouds rolling in - be prepared to head inside. The limited storm coverage means you don't need to plan your day around storm avoidance though. South winds at 10-15 mph.
Pueblo forecast: High: 83; Low: 58.
Clouds early today, clearing through the morning. Refreshingly comfortable highs today - about 10 degrees below average. Very isolated storms late this afternoon - about a 2-in-10 chance - but, if you get one, it will be severe or strong with strong wind gusts and large hail both possible. South winds at 10-15 mph.
Canon City forecast: High: 80; Low: 62.
Cloudy early, but skies should clear before noon. Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon with about a 4-in-10 chance of seeing one at any given location. Timing between 2-4 PM is most likely. Southeast winds at 10-15 mph. There is an isolated risk of flash flooding this afternoon.
Woodland Park forecast: High: 71; Low: 49.
Clouds clearing by mid-morning, then mostly to partly sunny- and noticeably humid (a bit unusual). Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon with strong wind gusts and hail both possible during the early to middle afternoon, which also bring back the clouds. South winds at 10-15 mph.
Tri-Lakes forecast: High: 70s; Low: 50s.
Low clouds and patchy fog this morning giving way to partly sunny skies by noon. Isolated thunderstorms possible this afternoon (3 in 10 chance). Storms will be capable of strong wind gusts, and the strongest storms may contain large hail. South winds at 10-15 mph.
Plains forecast: High: 70s; Low: 50s/60s.
Mostly cloudy - and cool - with highs 15-20 degrees below average. An isolated late-day thunderstorm is possible, but unlikely. Southeast winds at 10-15 mph.
Walsenburg and Trinidad forecast: High: 78; Low: 57.
Clouds this morning, which clear relatively quickly - followed by isolated afternoon thunderstorms. Timing looks fairly late...closer to 5-7 PM, and storms will be chiefly capable of strong wind gusts, but could also contain hail. East winds at 5-10 mph. You may want to avoid La Veta Pass while these storms pass through as the pass is likely to enhance wind speeds from the storms due to their movement relative to the shape of the pass.
Mountains forecast: High: 60s; Low: 40s/50s.
Clouds early, mostly clear during the lunch hour, then scattered thunderstorms will form. Some of these storms will be severe, capable of damaging winds, hail, and very heavy rain.The timing favors early to mid afternoon - with 2PM a reasonable start time, with storms progressing from northwest to southeast through the afternoon hours.
Extended outlook forecast:
Sunday is the pick of the weekend - dry, mostly sunny, and seasonal to slightly below average highs (70s mountains, 80s I-25, 90s Pueblo and plains). Moisture will increase Monday, providing isolated storm chances mainly north of highway 50 and in the mountains that continue Tuesday. A cold front arriving Wednesday provides much more moisture, and upper level energy will provide additional support for storms. This will lead to a greater chance for severe weather, and widespread thunderstorms on Wednesday afternoon. Storms remain widespread Thursday, with a slight drying signal Friday across the area. July is the wettest or second wettest month of the year depending on the city across southern Colorado...so this is normal.
Throughout much of the week, temperatures hover close to average in the 70s to mid-90s. We will be monitoring for at least an isolated flooding potential during the middle of the week, when we have the chance of seeing more than one heavy thunderstorm each of Wednesday and Thursday impacting the same areas.
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Curious about the First Alert 5 Weather Storm Impact Scale? Check out our cheatsheet explainer.
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