In the wake of a historic winter that devastated two of Colorado's largest elk herds, the state and local efforts to help the animals recover are starting to pay off.
Up in northwest Colorado, very few seasons compare to the winter of 2022-2023, which broke previous records for persistent snowpack, low temperatures and wind.
The impact on wildlife was hard to witness.
Marie Haskett, an outfitter based in Meeker and a Colorado Parks and Wildlife (CPW) commissioner for two terms, vividly remembers seeing the bodies of countless elk, deer and pronghorn that had succumbed to starvation or the elements strewn on the landscape.
"And it really affected people deeply," she said.
Hunting, which is a billion-dollar industry across all game animals in Colorado, underwent major changes as CPW staff severely limited the number of licenses available for those three species in the northwest.
This year, Denver7 began hearing rumors that the elk herds were making a remarkable recovery, so we reached out to CPW to see what was actually happening on the ground.
Yes, the elk were well on their way to normal population estimates — a milestone the herds were approaching much faster than expected — but CPW isn't calling this "mission accomplished" just yet.
"There was a lot of concern about, you know, 'How are we ever going to rebound from this?'" explained CPW terrestrial biologist Darby Finley. "... Given the conditions that we've experienced since then, it is pretty remarkable how quickly they were able to come back from such a significant event."
Haskett said she sees the herds' numbers are coming back, but also isn't quite ready to call this a success story.
"We still have a long ways to go," she said, noting a predicted tough winter ahead and stressors from recent wildfires and drought. "Their winter feed ground — there's just not the feed there to help them."
So, Stephanie Butzer and Maggy Wolanske decided to dive in and share the story of northwest Colorado's iconic elk herds after a winter extreme enough to break a slew of records, and see where the herds stand today as we near another winter season.
What happened in northwest Colorado that winter?
A winter of historic magnitude slammed into the northwest corner of Colorado through the 2022-2023 season, breaking records for storm severity and duration.
The region that saw the harshest conditions — Steamboat Springs west to Rangely and north to the Wyoming state line, mostly in Moffat and Rio Blanco counties — overlapped with the home for large numbers of elk, deer and pronghorn.
Storm after storm pummeled the region from late October through the spring, said Andy Holland, big game manager with CPW.
Grasses and other foliage that those ungulates would typically rely on during the winter months were inaccessible under as many as 30 inches of snow, which was packed down so hard that a whole herd could walk on top of it. This forced the animals to burn fat critical to their survival to travel farther west than they normally would in search of food, CPW said.
With food as the top priority, the desperate elk turned toward any viable options. And that included feed lines set out by ranchers for their livestock. But ranchers cannot afford to feed wildlife on top of their livestock and this quickly became an issue not only financially, but also because aggressive elk trying to get to the hay can kill livestock and their young, CPW said.
As claims for wildlife damage increased, CPW began "baiting" the elk in February 2023 by providing just enough hay in a line away from the livestock to encourage the elk to seek food somewhere else. CPW said their intention was never to fully feed the elk.
As the winter continued, many elk died, whether from the elements, starvation, or after becoming caught in fencing or hit by vehicles. The Bears Ears and White River elk herds, which are among the largest in the state and make up 25% of the elk population in Colorado, were heavily affected.
Haskett said she barely had any words for what she saw that winter.
"It was the most horrific thing I've ever seen," she said. "I spent two days in an airplane and several days on the ground, and we didn't see hardly any live animals. We saw piles of dead animals everywhere we went, when we drove. When we flew, you could see it from the plane. It was unbelievable how many animals were dead on the landscape, and they stuck out."
By the spring of 2023, nobody could drive the 40 miles between Meeker and Craig without seeing at least 50 dead animals along the road, she said.
"I've never seen anything like it," she added. "No one in this country had ever seen anything like it."
Finley said the Bears Ears herd lost about 30-40% of its population, with the White River herd nearly the same. CPW reported that those survival rates were the lowest it had ever documented and below what the agency thought was possible for elk.
Denver7 asked Darby Finley about what exactly made that winter so dangerous for the elk, which are hardy creatures well-adapted for all of Colorado's seasons. Hear his answer in the video below.
"I would have lost bets that we could have that high of mortality on adult health," Holland said. "We've never seen natural mortality that high on adult elk."
That winter, CPW had collars on many of the elk for a research project and were able to monitor the impact in nearly real time. Staff expected to see some calf mortality given social competition and their body size, but what shocked them was the high number of deaths amid adult females, or cows.
"The adult survival rates for cow elk were the lowest, I think, that may have ever been observed," Finley said. "I know for a fact that's the case in Colorado (but may be true in the whole U.S.)."
"And so we took a pretty conservative approach by reducing (hunting) licenses significantly post-winter," he continued.
At a May 2023 meeting — when the ground in northwest Colorado was still covered in snow — in Glenwood Springs, CPW staff recommended massive reductions in antlerless elk hunting licenses for the following hunting season, including an 89% reduction for the Bears Ears herd, a 63% reduction for the White River herd and a 60% reduction for the Rangely herd. The hunting season there was drastically shortened, as brief as seven days in one case.
This was ultimately approved, resulting in a statewide reduction of 15,400 elk hunting licenses, or about 12%. Including deer and pronghorn, that number hovered around 31,000 cut licenses.
The below map shows the data analysis area (DAUs) that saw these reductions. This severe winter zone map was shared within CPW, but also with the general public so hunters could understand which locations were hit hard and which were not.
The impacted communities knew that the mass elk deaths would result in cuts to hunting licenses — but for many, it was something they welcomed.
"Everybody was willing to share the burden, in terms of enduring the hardship that we knew was coming after the fact, to get numbers back to where we wanted them," Finley said.
"We wanted to have the herd recover faster than slower, and we were willing to take those hits to see the herd rebound," Haskett said.
The view of that rebound and future of herds
“That dramatic action designed to get those herds back as quickly as possible is working,” Holland explained. “… So, it's a good story that we're starting to tell now.”
As difficult as it was to watch the mass elk, deer and pronghorn deaths that winter, there was a silver lining.
"Now that we're on the backside of it and can reflect on it a little bit, it wasn't necessarily all bad in terms of the range conditions," Finley said. "A lot of our winter range was deferred for that year from having browse pressure on it, or from animals feeding on it. So, it responded well after all the snow melted."
That spring, the vegetation flourished after staying protected through the winter under the snowpack. Once that snow did melt, revealing the new green growth and flowers, there were fewer hungry animals to eat it. Those survivors, fueled with plenty of good nutrition, gave birth to healthy calves.
"I still reflect on a lot of the pictures from that spring," Finley said. "Just the flush and vegetation and the flowers — it was unbelievable, the way the range responded. And you just knew that that was going to translate into elk populations rebounding, and deer and antelope and everything else that we have up here."
After the tragic winter, it created an ideal situation for the animals to get back on their feet, he said.
"We knew elk were hardy and that they would respond well, if given the opportunity by taking the pressures of harvest off that we did," he said. "And they have. They've bounced back."
That's thanks to a combination of things: the influx of new growth that spring, two mild winters since then, and the commitment of patient hunters who were supportive of sitting out a few seasons to allow the herds to recover.
The White River herd has returned to the middle of its long-term objective range, and Finely said it is likely going to "shoot right through the top end of it, just because of how resilient elk are." And the Bears Ears herd is on the cusp of the lower end of their population objective range.
"So, just within a matter of two, three years, we're right back to a spot where we're going to have to put some harvest pressure back on the animals to keep them within the population objective range that we want them in," Finley said.
“It's the comeback we were hoping for,” Holland added. "... So, the story with elk is very positive. They're coming back even more quickly than we had hoped."
So, how has this translated to hunting licenses?
Cow licenses for the Bears Ears herd is currently about 1/3 of the amount from post-hunt in 2022. The White River herd cow hunting licenses are at about 50%.
"We're getting back, but we're by no means back to where we were," Holland said.
That winter, and CPW's reaction to it, offered many lessons on how to manage the animals through Mother Nature's fury.
"What we've learned from it has been invaluable from my perspective," Finley said. "And hopefully I'll be able to pass that along to whoever comes next.... It was the perfect storm to be able to have collars and be monitoring all those things. We were able to track that in real time, essentially. That's been really interesting. And just seeing how these animals are adapted to be able to respond — it is remarkable."
Both Finley and Holland noted that the story is not quite as rosy for the pronghorn and mule deer, which are still struggling to regain footing in that part of the state.
Despite two recent moderate winters, northwest Colorado did see severe drought and wildfires this past summer, which leaves lingering questions about the future.
Haskett said her community is concerned about what the elk are going to eat this winter. Much of the herds' winter grounds burned in the fires or were left parched by drought. The area has seen recent rain, but this late in the year, it is difficult to see how the upcoming season will treat the elk, she said.
Long-term forecasts point to another tough winter up there.
"This winter is going to be harder," Haskett said. "I feel like the herds are recovering. The antelope and deer are still really down. The elk herds are rebounding, but they're not where they used to be."
"I just don't think we're there yet and a couple more years, and hopefully we'll be a little bit further down the road," she continued. "But this winter will be the tell of how things progress."
