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Seasonal Recap…Unseasonably high and dry, since January 1

Posted: 11:52 AM, Apr 27, 2018
Updated: 2018-04-27 13:52:45-04

While probably not coming as a surprise to anyone, it has been unseasonably warm recently. Which made me curious, as to how warm it has been, since January 1st. So, let’s start with the basics…there have been 116 days (not counting today), since January first.

It is worth reminding you that, in a totally average, normal world…one would expect to find exactly 50% of days coming in above, 50% below, or some even combination of both along with days that were "average".

Now, eliminating any days that were "average" (just a few), the Springs has seen a whopping 67% of days above average. Pueblo has seen it’s share, at 62%. So again, if the numbers should be 50/50, that would mean that 17% of days (COS) were above…that "should not" have been (67%-50%=17%), and 12% (Pueblo) were above that should not have been. That is a statistically significant difference. 

Strictly on comparing monthly averages, January came in well above average (4.5 degrees above for COS, 3.7 degrees above for Pueblo), February was actually very close to average (minus 0.2 and +0.1F respectively), March came in well above average (3.6 & 3.1 respectively), and April is continuing that trend, although April has been all over the map so far, in terms of extremes.

So, temps (other than February), have been well above average…and as the latest drought monitor shows…it has combined with scant little (or at least, nowhere near enough) precipitation too…making for very dry conditions and often, very high fire danger. And the pattern appears locked in, for awhile longer…going forward.