DENVER — If you’ve looked at flight prices lately and wondered why fares still feel painfully high, aviation experts say there’s a reason travelers are not seeing the usual post-summer slowdown.
Despite expectations that airfare would ease after Labor Day, demand for flights remains strong and airlines are continuing to keep ticket prices elevated heading into the holiday travel season.
“Airfare is up a little over 25% year-over-year since last July,” said Chad Kendall, an aviation expert at Metropolitan State University of Denver. “There are many factors at play here, primarily it comes down to supply and demand.”
Kendall says airlines are balancing several rising costs at once, including fuel, labor, airport operations, and maintenance, while planes continue flying full.
“Travel demand right now is very strong,” Kendall said. “Airlines are being really disciplined about how many seats they put into the market.”
That means even though travelers may hope for cheaper fall fares after the busy summer season, airlines are not flooding the market with extra seats that could drive prices down.
Fuel prices have received significant attention in recent weeks amid instability in global energy markets, but Kendall said jet fuel is only part of the equation.
“Fuel is one of the highest variable costs to an airline and its business,” he said. “But there’s also been other high increasing costs for airlines like labor.”
Many airlines have renegotiated pilot and crew contracts in recent years, increasing payroll costs. Airlines are also paying more in maintenance and airport-related expenses, according to Kendall.
At the same time, travelers are still booking trips.
“Absolutely. We’re seeing an increase in travel demand year-over-year, especially coming out of COVID,” said Kendall.
He also noted that flexibility, including flying midweek or outside peak travel days, can sometimes help travelers find lower fares, especially around the holidays.
“Instead of flying on Wednesday, maybe look the week before, maybe look a little earlier in the week,” he said ahead of the Thanksgiving travel season. “Flexibility and competition help with more favorable airline prices.”
Historically, travelers could often count on lower fares during certain booking windows or after peak summer travel ended. But Kendall says that pattern has become less predictable as airlines rely more heavily on dynamic pricing models and carefully manage seat inventory.
“I don’t think you’re going to see rates come down,” he said, “unless there is a dramatic decline in demand.”
There is at least one bright spot for Denver travelers.
Kendall says Denver’s average domestic airfare remains below the national average, largely because of strong airline competition at Denver International Airport.
According to figures provided by Kendall, average domestic airfare out of Denver is about $393 compared to roughly $428 nationally.
Still, experts say travelers hoping for significantly cheaper flights this fall or winter may need to adjust expectations and book strategically.
