SOUTHERN COLORADO — In Colorado, Spring and Summer don't just mean warmer temperatures — it also means severe storm season. 90% of Colorado's tornadoes occur from May until August. We have seen tornadoes as early as February and as late as October. Severe weather can happen at any time of the year, but the specific conditions that we see during the spring and summer months make it more likely to see these threats.
The Storm Prediction Center is based in Norman, Oklahoma and these meteorologist will release a daily outlook that will highlight places across the United States that are likely to see severe weather that day. This is a more detailed forecast that will explain what is happening within our atmosphere. Things like energy and moisture play crucial roles in determining how strong these storms can be.
The categories will range from a one (lowest risk) to five (highest risk). A level one risk, or marginal, means that isolated severe storms will be possible, but likely won't be widespread. Some of the main threats would be gusty winds, small hail, and maybe a brief tornado. Most storms within a marginal risk are likely to stay below sever storm criteria. You can think of this as a "heads up" and outdoor plans may need to be changed.
A level two out of five would be a slight risk highlighted in yellow. When this has been issued, scattered severe storms are possible. These storms are a little more organized than a marginal risk. Damaging wind gusts and small hail are par for the course with these storms. It's not unlikely to see an isolated tornado, but this threat usually remains low. If a slight risk has been issued, expect conditions to change pretty quickly.
A level three out of five is an enhanced risk and this is where numerous severe storms are expected. These storms tend to be a little more intense and there is a much greater risk for damaging wind gusts, large hail and a few tornadoes. On enhanced days, it is important to pay attention to the forecast closely.
A level four out of five is a moderate risk and these aren't issued too often. Widespread severe storms are likely and some of these are long-lasting. There is a much higher threat for long-track tornadoes, large hail, and destructive winds are common. These are the days when prepping ahead matters.
The last risk on our categorical scale is a level five out of five. High risk days are reserved for some of the most extreme weather events. There is high confidence that long track violent tornado outbreaks are likely. These storms can pose a serious threat to life and property. Meteorologists at the Storm Prediction Center are very cautious about issuing these and these don't get issued every year.
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