Warmer air returns to southern Colorado with a solid chance for strong to severe thunderstorms across the region. Moist air is being pushed into the lower elevations and will lead to some of the strongest storm action across Las Animas and Baca counties later this afternoon. Storms will start over the mountains and move east through the day. Colorado Springs, Woodland Park and Trinidad could see strong and possibly severe storms, but the better chances for severe weather lie east of those three towns. Pueblo and Canon City could see strong to severe storms but most modeling tries to keep those two towns mostly dry. Any rain in the day should weaken and dry up through the evening.
COLORADO SPRINGS: High – 82; Low – 52. Storms develop over the mountains in the early afternoon with the strongest storms pushing through town through the afternoon. Scattered showers and thunderstorms could continue to develop off and on into the early evening but generally dry skies are expected after 10 pm. Hail is a possibility, mainly pea to nickel size but damaging quarter size hail cannot be ruled out.
PUEBLO: High – 89; Low – 54. Storms look to develop west of Pueblo in the afternoon with the strongest thunderstorms trying to push through town in the afternoon. Scattered showers will be possible after 3 pm but mostly dry skies are expected through the late afternoon and evening. Storm chances are pretty low today but any storms that cross through town could pack hail sizes ranging from dime to quarter in size.
CANON CITY: High –86; Low – 56. Flooding in the Arkansas River near Canon City to Florence is possible today as snowmelt and mountain rains push the already full river just out of its banks. Large and possibly severe thunderstorms are possible in Canon City this afternoon, but storms are much more likely north of town in the mountains. Isolated showers remain a possibility into the early evening, but storm chances are generally low today.
WOODLAND PARK: High – 74; Low – 47. Strong to possibly severe thunderstorms are likely in Teller County from Woodland Park to Cripple Creek, starting around the early afternoon and moving east towards Colorado Springs. The first round of storms would likely be the most severe with pea to nickel size hail possible. Any showers or thunderstorms behind the first wave through the early evening would likely not be severe.
TRI-LAKES: High – 70s; Low – 40s. Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible in the afternoon with scattered off and on showers possible through the evening hours. A stray shower or thunderstorm could roll through later tonight after 9 pm, but if we see severe weather it’s mainly for the first wave of afternoon thunderstorms. Hail is the biggest concern today, sizes from dimes to quarters are possible.
PLAINS: High – 80/90s; Low – 50s. Strong to severe weather is pretty likely across the plains in the afternoon, mainly anytime after 2 pm today. Eastern Las Animas, Baca and Kiowa counties have the best chances for severe weather today, with large hail and strong winds as the main severe threats. Plenty of strong thunderstorms could follow the Arkansas River through Otero and Bent counties, but the worst storms seem to be tracking north or south of the river.
WALSENBURG/TRINIDAD: High – 80s; Low – 50s. Strong to possibly severe thunderstorms are possible early in the afternoon today, with storms coming out of the mountains west of both towns around 2 pm this afternoon. Trinidad is more likely to see the worst storms this afternoon with large hail and strong winds as a possibility, but the strongest storm activity is more likely out east farther into Las Animas County. Flooding is possible in and around the southern mountains west of I-25, especially near the Spring burn scar.
Friday is going to be HOT with storms most likely north of highway 50 in and around the Pikes Peak region. Isolated storms could form near Canon City, but Pueblo south to Trinidad and east across the plains are much more likely to stay hot and dry with highs back in and near the 90s.
The weekend is going to be wet and cooler with very heavy rain and flooding possible on Saturday, Sunday, and Monday. Flooding concerns are highest on Saturday and Monday, but with high river levels already present, any hard rain could spill the river over its banks. Storms become more scattered and lighter through the middle of next week.