If I’d have written this next line six weeks into the season, you would’ve thought I was crazy.
With four weeks left in the season, the Denver Broncos are just as likely to make the playoffs this season as they are to miss them.
Their win Sunday in Los Angeles against the AFC West rival Chargers gave the Broncos a 50% chance to make the postseason, according to the New York Times playoffs simulator, which simulates tens of thousands of outcomes to arrive at a team’s playoff odds.
Denver sits as the No. 9 seed in a crowded AFC after Week 14. The Broncos are one of six teams with a 7-6 record in the conference, following losses by the Pittsburgh Steelers, Indianapolis Colts and Houston Texans and wins by the Broncos, Cincinnati Bengals and Buffalo Bills.
The Broncos are also just one game out of AFC West lead after the Kansas City Chiefs' loss to Buffalo on Sunday.
If the Broncos beat the Detroit Lions Saturday night on Denver7, their odds of making the playoffs jump to 70%, according to the simulator. As has been the case for the last few weeks, though, 10 wins appears to be the magic number for the Broncos. Reaching 10 wins on the season puts their odds between 84% and 90% of making the playoffs.
Splitting the remaining four games and ending the season with nine wins would give them around a 20% chance of making the playoffs, according to the simulator.
A playoff run would put the Broncos, who started 0-3 this season, in rare company. Only four out of 158 teams (2.5%) to start 0-3 in the last three decades have reached the postseason.
So, what does the path to 10 wins look like? Here’s a look at the Broncos remaining schedule:
- Week 15: @ Lions (9-4)
- Week 16: vs. Patriots (3-10)
- Week 17: vs. Chargers (5-8)
- Week 18: @ Raiders (5-8)
