Record-breaking heat and elevated fire danger across Southern Colorado may have snow far from mind, but the lack of snow is exactly why fire threats are elevated.

El Nio is here, according to NOAA, and for those whose livelihoods depend on snow, that news brings cautious optimism.

It was La Nia that delivered very little snow last winter. Now, with El Nio taking hold, local ski shops are watching the forecast closely.

The owner of a local ski shop said she welcomes the change, even if the science behind it isn't always easy to follow.

"I think a lot of people are confused about what El Nio and La Nia isbut I'm hoping El Nio brings a ton of snow this year," she said.

El Nio is a warming of waters in the equatorial Pacific Ocean. Meteorologists classify El Nio events as weak, moderate, strong, or very strong, based on how much warmer than average ocean temperatures become. The current forecast suggests this year's El Nio could reach the very strong category.

El Nio tends to push the jet stream south during fall and winter months. Colorado can see significant snow events during El Nio winters, and some years bring above-average snowfall statewide. However, when averaging across all El Nio years, the trend is less clear. A very strong El Nio can sometimes push the jet stream too far south, which can actually limit moisture reaching Colorado.

The ski shop owner recalled one memorable El Nio winter from the 1990s.

"I do remember jumping off our second story deck in the snowwe lived in Woodland Park. And I think we got six feet. It was probably in the 90s. I remember that being a huge dump," she said.

While La Nia is associated with lower-than-average snowfall, El Nio brings renewed hope for those counting on a strong snow season. Local ski shops are already preparing.

"We've been buying all summerwe just need to give confidence back to people that they're going to spend money and actually get a chance to get out and use it," she said.

Still, uncertainty remains. If this El Nio is as strong as forecast, there is little historical precedent to predict exactly what it will bring. And if the jet stream ends up too far south, Colorado may not receive the moisture needed for a strong snow season. The deck is ever so slightly tilted in skiers' favor, but a lot will revolve around what El Nio does during the late winter and early spring.

If conditions persist through the spring of 2027, which are historically Colorado's snowiest months...there is a bit more historical precedent to suggest above average snowfall is likely.

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It was a scorcher across Colorado today with highs well into the 90s and some areas even into the triple digits. This was due to a high-pressure system sitting over the region. If we look a little more closely though, temperatures were a few degrees warmer in bigger towns and cities. This is due to something called the "Urban Heat Island" or the Heat Island Effect.

This happens when black top pavement, concrete, and buildings absorb more energy from the sun. These surfaces also hold onto this energy and heat more so than grass and soil.

Even overnight when the sun sets, these surfaces will still hold onto this heat. Overnight lows for Denver vs surrounding areas will actually be warmer. On a more local note, the southeast side of Colorado Springs has a lot of pavement and concrete. Locals have even been given trees to plant to help combat this.

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BOULDER, Colo. Most weather apps can tell you the wind speed for your town. But what if the forecast could tell you exactly what the wind is doing in your neighborhood, or even on your street?

Scientists at the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) are developing a next-generation weather prediction system that aims to do exactly that. Using fleets of weather-sensing drones, supercomputers, and a powerful modeling tool called FastEddy, researchers are working on modeling winds at an accuracy of about two meters roughly the size of a queen bed.

Dr. James Pinto, a senior scientist at NCAR, said the project grew out of years of collaboration with the University of Kentucky, which built a weather-sensing drone system.

They built a weather-sensing drone system, and we were thinking that we could use that information in our modeling work, Pinto said. The need is very widespread, so its wildland firefighting, air quality prediction, and emerging modes of aerial transportation, like deliveries.

Currently, most wind models can track large-scale patterns and are useful for regional forecasts. But they struggle to show whats happening at the micro level especially near the ground, where terrain, buildings, and trees can drastically alter conditions.

The current models can only really resolve things at the county-wide scale, Pinto explained. We get it down to the neighborhood scale, or even the street level, where we can say whats happening between these two buildings. Wildfire danger is top of mind

One of the most promising uses is wildfire prediction and response. Wind can drive flames in unpredictable ways, sometimes shifting direction over just a few hundred feet.

Watch Colin Riley's report in the player below:

You really need to have this fine-scale information to help support wildland firefighters in the field to combat these fires, Pinto said. And even before they happen understanding where these fires are more likely to break out. The system could also give power companies targeted information to avoid risky, wide-area shutdowns during wind events.

You can shut down the power lines in that area specifically, not the entire county, Pinto said. That could save a lot of money and headaches.

Specialized drones will collect wind, temperature, and humidity readings just a few feet above the ground. That data is fed into NCARs model and processed using the Derecho supercomputer in Wyoming. The high-powered system can simulate how winds move around buildings, tree canopies, and other obstacles showing the exact flow patterns firefighters or utility workers need to know.

The hyperlocal prediction system we have can resolve buildings, it can resolve tree canopies, and how they interact with the low-level flow, Pinto said. Thats what gives you whats happening in the winds at the surface. The project is expected to run for five years, with a demonstration of the full capability planned by the end of year four. Researchers hope the technology can be applied to everything from firefighting to urban drone delivery and even planning for future air taxi services.

Were really trying to do cutting-edge work both on the observational side and the modeling side, Pinto said, to provide the best possible low-altitude wind forecast that we can provide.

If successful, the system could be deployed nearly anywhere drones can fly, producing forecasts in minutes that are tailored to cities, neighborhoods, or even individual streets.

Drought conditions are forcing Pueblo County farmers to make early season adjustments, with some fields sitting bare during what would normally be peak growing season.

At Milberger Farms in Pueblo, fields that would typically be filled with crops are empty this year. The farm relies on the Bessemer Ditch water channel, which feeds from the Arkansas River. A historically low snowpack in the mountains has reduced snowmelt, meaning not enough water is reaching the farms.

Dalton Milberger said the shortage is causing headaches.

"For us it means a lot more work," Milberger said.

That extra work includes spreading crops across multiple locations to make the most of limited water resources.

"So that...you know...that entails planting an acre of chile on this farm...going down the road 2 miles..planting another acre...um...spreading the crops out a lot more to utilize the water efficiently...

..checking it...changing it," Milberger said.

Milberger described the water situation in stark terms.

"Instead of having 10 gallons to get...get you hydrated...you only got one," Milberger said.

Dry downslope winds are pushing dust through the bare fields an unusual sight for mid-growing season. The Milberger family, which has decades of farming experience, said they have not seen conditions this poor this early in the year.

"Typically the droughts you know...they don't affect us this early in the year. Typically we'll get water cut back around mid-August...September," Milberger said.

While Pueblo is no stranger to drought, this year is different. The Arkansas River relies on snowmelt, and the historically low snowpack means water supplies are critically reduced well ahead of the typical late-summer shortfall.

The latest Drought Monitor update shows Pueblo is in moderate drought. However, that designation reflects multiple types of drought. Agricultural drought is just one category, and even if vegetation in downtown Pueblo appears green, farmers can be experiencing far more serious impacts.

And while chilis at Milberger Farms are not affected, the farm is growing fewer melons and other crops because of the water shortage. So you'll get the heat, but not as much sweet, later this summer.

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Colorado experiences vastly different weather conditions, even on a single day. In El Paso county in particular it can bring bright and sunny conditions, but a few minutes later you may drive through a thunderstorm. The reason for this is due mainly to the topography.

From the top of Pikes Peak (14,115 feet) to the lowest point in the county (5,095 feet) this can play a major role in temperatures, winds, and even severe weather.

For example, on June 10th, this was a snapshot of temperatures across parts of El Paso county. Downtown Colorado Springs was hitting the mid-80s, while the airport was only in the mid-70s. Strong, downsloping winds heat up the air in downtown, but those winds didn't quite reach the airport yet.

These mountains will also push air upwards on other days. This will create thunderstorms on the western side of the county. With drier air in eastern El Paso, it dries out these storms and they will die off.

Each day brings different weather conditions, and there's no day with the exact same forecast. The first alert weather team takes all of these conditions into mind to create the most accurate forecasts for our viewers.

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Solar insolation is the weather term for how much of the sun's energy hits a patch of Earth in a given period of time. The balance between energy coming in and energy going out is what drives the seasonal temperature lag.

Earth has an energy budget, and like any budget you have deposits and withdrawals.

So, think of it like a savings account. In April, the region is building up its energy reserves, taking in far more solar energy than it loses. On average, Earth loses about 237.5 watts per square meter of energy out to space.

There are variations to this average for all kinds of reasons, and that number is for the top of the atmosphere. But that's the starting point.

As the days get longer and the sun gets higher in the sky each day the duration of solar heating, and the intensity of that heating increases. This ultimately exceeds the "energy out" budget in spring.

In May, that trend continues. By mid-June, the gap between energy in and energy out is narrowing, but the region is still accumulating heat. It is not until late July that energy in and energy out reach roughly equal levels. In essence, the land and oceans are still absorbing more heat than they are emitting, and temperatures keep warming...well past the summer solstice.

By August, more energy is leaving than arriving, and temperatures begin to fall.

The sun's angle also plays a role. On June 1, Colorado Springs' peak sun angle sits just above 73 degrees. At the summer solstice, it reaches about 74.5 degrees. By July 31, that angle has already dropped to 69 degrees meaning the solstice quantifies the peak of solar insolation, not the peak of summer heat.

Average high temperatures in Colorado Springs reflect this lag clearly. The hottest month (July) trails the solstice by roughly a month. The same pattern plays out a bit less strongly in winter the coldest temperatures arrive a couple of weeks after the winter solstice, as the climate system plays catch up.

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As we near the start of summer, average temperatures continue to warm as well. The average high at the start of June for Colorado Springs is 77 degrees, and Pueblo is 84.

These temperatures that we are feeling are out of the ordinary; this doesn't break any records.

Colorado Springs averages its first 90-degree day on June 15th, so a couple of days ahead of schedule. For Pueblo, they usually hit their first 100-degree day on June 24th.

What more in the video player below

This heat isn't over yet, and there are a couple of chances for Colorado Springs to get back into the 90s, and one more day for Pueblo to get into the triple digits.

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Colorado's sunshine is already more potent than at lower elevations because the thinner atmosphere at higher altitudes provides less protection from ultraviolet radiation. Three weeks from the summer solstice, the sun's zenith angle is decreasing (the peak angle above the horizon is increasing) and approaching its highest point of the year, which increases its intensity even further.

On Thursday, community members at the dog park at Palmer Park in Colorado Springs shared how they protect themselves from the intense summer sun and some recalled painful lessons learned the hard way.

Matthew Adams, a Colorado Springs resident, described his worst sunburn.

"It was probably at the Pueblo Reservoir tubing. Honestly, like we were out on the tube all day and it was so bad I got blisters."

Adams said he was about 12 years old at the time and had been outside most of the day.

What UV rays actually are and why they matter

The sun produces ultraviolet radiation, commonly known as UV rays. These are divided into UV-A, UV-B, and UV-C based on their wavelength. UV-B rays are the primary concern for outdoor enthusiasts they are responsible for sunburns and most skin cancer risk.

Understanding SPF

The SPF number on sunscreen stands for Sun Protection Factor. Broad spectrum sunscreen blocks both UV-A and UV-B rays.

Here's how the numbers break down:

The SPF number represents a ratio. With SPF 30 applied correctly, it should take skin 30 times as long to burn compared to wearing no sunscreen at all. With SPF 50, it should take 50 times as long. That protection only holds, however, if sunscreen is applied properly and no spots are missed.

Colorado Springs resident Amy Milling said she aims for at least SPF 30.

"See I...I tried to do at least a 30 and I think that for here in Colorado I think it's the minimum is like 30."

She was right. Dermatologists recommend a minimum of SPF 30 - everywhere.

Applying enough sunscreen, not missing spots, and reapplying regularly is more important than simply choosing a higher SPF number. That said, if you burn easily or plan to be at very high altitudes such as on a 13er or 14er those higher SPF levels still matter.

The summer solstice is the longest day of the year and offers plenty of time to enjoy the outdoors. Protecting yourself from the sun and staying hydrated will help make those extra hours enjoyable.

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The eastern slopes of Pikes Peak look bone dry for early June, and statewide snowpack snow water equivalent sits at only 14% of average for this date. But looks and even averages can be deceiving, and hikers still need to prepare for snow on the state's highest peaks.

The Upper Colorado River Basin's current snow water equivalent is only 3% of median, with just 0.1 inches of water equivalent. Based on that data, summer trail conditions with perhaps a few patches of snow might seem like a reasonable expectation heading into the mountains right now. That assumption can get hikers into trouble.

I went up to Mount Sopris on Sunday a 12,965-foot summit that anchors the northwestern edge of the Elk Mountains near Glenwood Springs. Sopris is a hidden gem. It's less popular than the 14ers but offers stunning views of the Roaring Fork Valley and beautiful alpine lakes.

What I encountered was closer to classic spring than summer. The lower trail was dry up to about 10,000 feet. But up high, large footprint craters in the snow were more than a foot deep in places. That's called postholing when you walk on snow and it gives out under your feet and you sink down.

No one on the trail that day had brought microspikes, ice axes, or any sort of winter hiking gear. The people I encountered were surprised by the conditions, unprepared, and had to turn around. There are also people who have done the peak recently in these conditions without winter gear but the risk is real.

Some of the lingering snow is likely because the Elk Mountains have been getting what are essentially snow thunderstorms in recent weeks, which may be helping to boost the snowpack in that area. But this is only minimally responsible.

The broader takeaway is this: even in a poor snowpack year, averages like snow water equivalent won't tell you what's happening on individual peaks and individual slopes.

Snow water equivalent data is an average across an entire water basin. The terrain of some mountains helps them hold snow much longer than others. Snowmass Mountain in the Elks is a classic example of that (hence its name). The standard route on Mount Sopris runs largely on its north and northeastern side and north-facing slopes hold onto snow much longer than other aspects because they get less direct sunlight.

The fact that Pikes Peak looks bare is not a reliable indicator of conditions elsewhere, either.

Altitude matters, but it's not the only factor. Summer conditions are present on most of the Barr Trail outside of the final mile, much of the Sangre de Cristo Mountains, and eastern faces of the Sawatch Mountains.

To know before you go, check local peak conditions on 14ers.com, AllTrails, SummitPost, or another peak-reporting website.

The snowpack data isn't wrong it just doesn't tell you about specific routes. Colorado is definitely ahead of schedule for spring melt-off, but hikers shouldn't assume they're in the clear. Check conditions before you go, or you might find yourself turning around and planning a return trip next week.

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The official first day of summer begins on the summer solstice, which is June 21st, but meteorologists and climate scientists track meteorological summer.

The main reason for this is record-keeping. It allows the same three months to be looked at over a long period of time, instead of the dates changing each year.

Meteorological summer starts in June and lasts through August.

Temperatures will continue to rise over the next several days, and we may get our first 90-degree day over the weekend. Pueblo has already hit their first 90-degree day this year.

The Climate Prediction Center's outlook has Colorado likely continuing with the above-average rainfall. With a shift towards El Nio conditions, this would increase the monsoonal moisture into Colorado.

This does favor the western slope of the mountains, but the Climate Prediction Center still has the eastern slope receiving above-average rainfall.

The best chances for above-average rainfall will be towards the I-25 corridor, with equal chances of seeing right at average rainfall further east.

If we were to get this rainfall, it would help to mitigate some of the wildfire risks as we get further into the year.

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Last week, News5 viewer and frequent photo contributor Bonnie Sumner sent in a photo with a question: Is this fog?

The answer is yes, and it's a unique example of a weather phenomenon called upslope fog.

Sumner's photo shows a cloud extending away from a mountain and sitting clearly above the ground. While it may not look like the fog most people picture, the science behind it confirms it qualifies.

Upslope fog begins with relatively cold air located low on the slopes of a mountain. Wind pushes that cold air up the mountain, where it gets even colder. As the air cools, its relative humidity increases. Eventually, the air cools to the point of saturation and the water condenses into a cloud fog.

The fog seen along I-25 this week is a different type called radiation fog, though this week's situation is a hybrid because upslope flow also contributed.

Radiation fog forms when there is a layer of low-level moisture near the ground and heat escapes upward through that layer. As the moisture rises and the air cools, the air saturates and fog forms, with the moisture trapped beneath the warmer air above.

Both types of fog have been responsible for the foggy conditions residents along I-25 and the eastern plains have experienced multiple days this week.

If you have a weather question, send me an email: casey.dorn@koaa.com

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Over the last few days, the First Alert 5 team has talked a lot about cloud ceilings. That refers to the height of the clouds above the ground.

Cloud ceilings are important for far more than just a cool visual for flyovers. They can tell you what's coming in the forecast and impact everything from flight plans to the potential for severe weather.

The term "ceiling" comes from aviation, where clouds can act as a literal ceiling, blocking a pilot's view. Simply put, the cloud ceiling is the lowest altitude where clouds cover more than half the sky the point where the sky becomes mostly cloudy.

In Colorado, the semi-arid climate means the air near the ground is usually very dry. Because dry air has to rise much higher before it's cool enough to form a cloud, the state is known for having very high cloud bases.

But when moisture returns, cloud ceilings drop and those low ceilings have major impacts.

At the airport, low cloud ceilings are a major cause of flight delays. When the ceiling drops below 1,000 feet, airports operate under instrument flight rules. This reduces the number of planes that can land and take off, causing backups and delays.

For severe weather, low cloud ceilings also play a critical role. For a tornado to form, the funnel cloud needs to reach the ground. A lower cloud base makes that path much shorter. This is technically measured using the dew point depression: the difference between the dew point ("how much water is in the air?") and the temperature. When the difference is less than 20 degrees, the cloud base tends to be sufficiently low for funnel clouds to reach the ground more easily.

Colorado's typically high cloud bases are why gusty winds often accompany a summer shower. Rain evaporates into the drier air beneath, cooling the air and causing it to then sink like a rock and produce gusty outflow winds. But when clouds are low, there's a better chance for flight delays and the storms that day (could) pack a bigger punch.

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There are different weather conditions that will alter whether or not the Thunderbirds will fly or stay grounded. It truly takes an entire village to make the final decision, and this ensures the safety of the pilots and the audience.

Meteorologist Lauren Brand spoke with visitors who traveled from Denver to see if they were concerned about the incoming rain, and they didn't let it bother them. They arrived early and were hoping that the clouds wouldn't get too low for practice.

Major Brandon Maxson who is the right wing pilot for Thunderbird 3 told News5, "We have different shows, different maneuvers that we will fly based off the weather conditions. So, typically it'll be a cloud based on the clouds. So if there's blue skies, zero clouds in the sky, that's when we can do our looping and rolling maneuvers."

It is also more difficult for these pilots to fly in Colorado vs places closer to sea level.

Maxson also tells us "Here in Colorado there's no ocean for us to fly over. Over the water, the air is typically nice and smooth, and the plane cuts through the air like butter".

To no surprise, light winds and sunny skies are the most ideal conditions for these pilots to fly. Just last year, the Air Force Graduation saw no Thunderbird flyover due to lower clouds. The cloud ceiling is how low the clouds will reach and at it's lowest point was just 400 feet. This created unsafe conditions for them to fly and they were grounded.

This year looks a little better, though there is a chance for some afternoon thunderstorms.

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El Paso County has more lightning-related deaths and injuries than any other county in Colorado, according to National Weather Service data and the Palmer Divide is a major reason why.

The area's higher elevation compared to surrounding plains makes it one of the first places to attract lightning on a stormy day. On many days, it receives storms when the rest of El Paso County stays dry.

I spoke with hikers, bikers, and runners at Monument Hill on Tuesday to find out how familiar people are with lightning safety and what I found is that while many know the basics - some common misconceptions still exist.

One person described how quickly conditions can change on the Palmer Divide.

"We were out for 15 minutes before the wind changes and like within a half hour there were dark gray clouds and lightning above our heads," they said.

When asked what they would do if lightning started striking nearby, another person said they would seek cover under an open nearby structure, reasoning that lightning would strike something taller.

That's actually a common misconception. While being at a higher elevation does increase risk, lightning seeks the path of least resistance to the ground not necessarily the tallest object. Lightning forms through an initial pathway called a stepped leader, which makes incremental jumps toward the ground from the cloud, and from the ground to the cloud. This leader jumps in sections of a couple hundred feet...meaning they only locally scan the immediate environment for that pathway. The cloud leader can't "see" the ground from the cloud. It only finds the ground contact when it's within 1-2 steps of the ground. Being at a higher elevation reduces resistance of the air, and makes a strike more likely. But it does not stop lightning from striking lower elevation zones.

Therefore: sheltering under an awning, overhang, tent, or open structure does not provide protection.

Here's what outdoor enthusiasts in the area need to know:

The key to staying safe in the summer is getting a head start on the weather. Thunderstorms thrive on heat from the sun and are most common in the afternoon. Starting and ending outdoor activities early goes a long way toward staying safe.

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The First Alert Weather team has updated the Storm Impact Scale (SIS) on the seven day forecast. This scale is to help determine how impactful the incoming storm will be for outdoor plans, school scheduling and traffic.

This is categorized by the fall/winter and spring/summer to gauge the different kinds of impacts we could experience. During the fall and winter months, snow and cold weather will be more of a problem while the spring and summer months will have more storm chances.

You won't need to cancel any plans when there is an Impact 1. Expect impacts to be minor and no major disruptions to your day.

Fall/Winter - Snow accumulations will be less than 2 inches, and there will be some wet or slick spots on roadways.

Spring/Summer - Showers are possible, but there will not be any lightning. Roadways may be wet.

Outdoor plans will start to be impacted. There may be some minor disruptions to your commute or other plans.

Fall/Winter - Snow accumulations will be between 2-4 inches. Roads may become icy and snowpacked.

Spring/Summer - Stormy conditions may bring moderate to heavy rainfall. Roadways may have standing water, and your speed will need to be reduced. There may be some minor flooding, lightning, and some small non-destructive hail.

Outdoor plans will need to be altered. Commute times will be disrupted. Schools will likely be delayed or canceled due to difficult travel.

Fall/Winter - Expected snow totals will range from 4-8 inches. Winds will reach 40-50mph.

Spring/Summer - Severe storms are expected which will bring lightning, large hail, 40-50mph winds, flooding, and a lower chance of a tornado.

Make alternate plans to stay indoors throughout the day. Travel will be heavily impacted. Businesses and schools will close.

Fall/ Winter - Snow totals will range from 8-12 inches. Wind gusts will be between 50-70mph. Visibility will be reduced.

Spring/Summer - Damaging severe storms are expected. Wind gusts have the possibility of reaching upwards of 70mph.

This is very rare that the weather team uses this, so it is crucial to make sure you are prepared ahead of time. Dangerous and life threatening weather is expected. You will need to remain sheltered inside.

Fall/Winter - Snow totals are expected to be over a foot. Winds will be 70+ mph, and will cause blizzard conditions. Visibility will be near zero and make travel impossible.

Spring/Summer - Major, widespread severe weather is expected. Winds will be gusting over 70mph. Tornadoes, damaging hail, and flooding will be a concern.

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Late-season snow fell across the Pikes Peak area Tuesday, catching some hikers in "summer mode" but not stopping them from hitting the trail.

The slopes of Pikes Peak are no strangers to late-season snow, but with the snowpack mostly melted, many hikers had already made the seasonal mental shift. At the Manitou Incline, some arrived underdressed for near-freezing air temperatures.

"I brought the wrong pants! I brought my shortsI was glad I had some slacks from another event that we went to - so glad about that," said William Bryce.

His son William said the cold snap required some last-minute digging through storage.

"I had packed away all of my even remotely winter clothes. I think I only had short sleeves outso I had to dig through some stuff to find a sweatshirt," said the younger Bryce.

The snow did not stop many from attempting the 2,768-step climb, with some seeing a silver lining in the chilly conditions.

"Actually I was thinking it'd keep the crowds down a little bit so that could be a positive for us!" said Stephen Devore.

Jamie Gurley, who was also on the trail, looked ahead to what the snow would leave behind.

"The one thing to look forward to is there's going to be snow up high, and it'll be beautiful after this is over!" Gurley said.

The views from the Incline and Barr Trail after a fresh snow are known to be breathtaking. A group of hikers Sam Thrower, Sage Thrower, Gamerin Matherly and Autumn Richardson said the conditions were a welcome challenge.

"That it was going to be a good day!" one said when asked about their first reaction to seeing snow on the Incline.

"Nice, cold climb yeah!" another added.

"It just makes it a little easier because you're not so hot going up," a third hiker said.

The group also offered advice for anyone planning to hit the trails in the coming days.

"You check the weather and then be prepared. The weather can change even if you check the weather. Plan for the worst. Yeah. Just be ready for anything to happen," they said.

More snow fell on Wednesday morning, with portions of Teller County reporting upwards of four to six inches of heavy, wet snow. By the afternoon, that snow was already quickly melting away. Similar snowfall likely covered at least the upper sections of the incline.

Thanks to the high May sun angle, the snow is not expected to stick around long. However, hikers heading out in the next few weeks may want to consider packing gaiters, shoe spikes, and packable layers, including a rain shell, extra socks (in case your primaries are wetted out), and gloves.

As additional areas of low-pressure spin through Colorado in the next several days, we're not done with the moisture just yet. That said, warming temperatures should result in snow being more confined to very high terrain in the coming days. This is all a good reminder to expect rapidly changing trail conditions if you are planning to hike in the next few weeks. Plan - and pack -accordingly. Especially over the busy Memorial Day weekend period.

See ya on the trails!

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On the 4th anniversary of a significant snowstorm that brought more than a foot of snow to parts of Southern Colorado, we've done it again this year!

After light snow fell Monday night and Tuesday morning, a more significant upper-level disturbance brought a much heavier round of snow to Teller County and the southeastern mountains Tuesday night and Wednesday morning.

While News5 viewers reported only minor travel disruptions due to slush and snow, the snow really piled up in some neighborhoods. There were also multiple wrecks reported on Wednesday morning in Colorado Springs and Castle Rock, due to rain and wet driving conditions.

Here's a look at some of the snow totals from across Southern Colorado.

Included here is a look at Radar Estimated Snowfall for the past 24 hours, valid from 10:30 am Tuesday (5/19/26) to 10:30 am Wednesday (5/20/26).

Reports in some parts of the state have been limited, so this should help fill the gaps. Confirmed reports were as follows:

* Near Buena Vista: 5.6"

* Westcliffe: 2.0"

* South of the La Veta Pass: 1.5"

* Rye: 1.4"

Pictures from around Colorado:

We asked our viewers for photos this morning on-air and online, and you all have answered the call! Here's a nice variety of photos from the storm from across Southern Colorado from our News5 viewers.

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Recent spring storms have brought some relief to Colorado's ongoing drought, but rapidly warming temperatures and an incoming heat dome could quickly undo those gains.

Snow events in May tend to produce very heavy, high water content, dense snow, and that is exactly what this week's storm system delivered. The system also came on top of significant moisture across parts of Colorado last week.

So far in May, Colorado Springs has picked up a little less than three-tenths of an inch of rain below average for the month. Pueblo has recorded about four-tenths of an inch, largely driven by this week's storm system, which is above average.

Last week, the entire state of Colorado had progressed into at least moderate drought, with almost 60% of the state in severe to exceptional drought.

The drought monitor measures a period from Wednesday to the following Tuesday, with updates released each Thursday. This week's storm system is not included in the latest update, but last week's rain and snow is.

The latest update shows meaningful improvement across the region. In El Paso County, the area in moderate drought dropped from 100% of the county to about 24%. In Pueblo County, that figure fell from 100% to around 60% in moderate or worse drought, though the city of Pueblo itself remains in moderate drought.

Despite the welcome moisture, those improvements are not likely to last. The combination of a high May sun angle and quickly warming temperatures means the temporarily increased snowpack will melt rapidly. A heat dome will build across the West heading through the weekend and into next week, pushing highs into the mid-80s to 90s across the plains about 15 degrees above average. The one-two punch of gusty winds and heat will quickly dry out new spring growth and elevate fire threats.

While the storms last week and this week brought needed moisture, the ongoing heat ahead means Colorado's water situation remains a concern. This is a good weekend to clear brush and debris from around your home as grass fire risk begins to increase.

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A magnitude 4.0 earthquake struck about 10.5 miles SSW of Weston at 11:44 a.m. Thursday, according to data from the U.S. Geological Survey.

The quake was at a depth of 5.4 miles. This part of the Raton Mesa has seen several earthquakes in this intensity range over recent years, and weaker quakes are fairly common.

News5 spoke to the Las Animas County Sheriff's Office and the Trinidad Police Department. Both agencies stated that no reported structure damage or reports of shaking, have been made to the office.

So far, USGS reports show minor shaking was felt in Trinidad, Walsenburg, near the Spanish Peaks, and in Pueblo.

Shake contours suggest this may have been felt across much of southern Colorado south of Highway 50. If you have a report to share, email us at weather@koaa.com, or news@koaa.com!

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April is typically the second snowiest month in Colorado Springs, but that has not been the case this year. As a significant spring storm approaches to close out the month, it will much-needed moisture to an unusually dry and warm winter and spring.

The dry conditions are evident at North Cheyenne Canon, where North Cheyenne Creek at Helen Hunt Falls is experiencing record low streamflow. I recently spent some time hiking in the canyon, and residents I spoke to were worried about the dry conditions.

While the incoming storm will not solve the drought, it aligns with the region's climatology for late April. First, late April is a period of the year where average precipitation amounts are increasing across much of southern Colorado. Second - the modeled rain-snow heights with this system are almost spot on with what you'd expect from a climate average standpoint. The weather pattern feels unusual only because the rest of the winter and spring have been abnormally dry.

Colorado Springs averages 5.5 inches of snow in April, while Pueblo averages 3.4 inches (6th snowiest). This snowfall is often front-loaded. The average last measurable snow is April 24 in Colorado Springs and April 13 in Pueblo.

Higher elevations see snow later in the season. In 2025, parts of Woodland Park in Teller County received six to seven inches of snow on May 7, while parts of Black Forest on the Palmer Divide saw three to six inches from the same storm. Teller County is more likely to record notable snow in May than the Palmer Divide because of its higher elevation, according to data I obtained from the CoCoRaHS citizen science observation network. Historical climate data shows Colorado Springs sees measurable snow in May about once every three years over the last 130 years.

Average last freeze dates are also approaching. Pueblo's average last freeze is April 30, and Monument's is May 18. Higher elevation zones in Teller County on the slopes of the Pikes Peak Massif can see freezes into June.

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Nearly 98% of Colorado is experiencing moderate or worse drought conditions, leading to intense fire threats and the potential for the earliest full snowpack melt on record.

Colorado's snowpack continues to decline, driving an extreme fire threat and intense warnings across the state's mountain zones.

Nearly 98% of Colorado's land area is currently in a moderate or worse drought.

The only areas avoiding these conditions are southern El Paso County, northern Pueblo County, and a small sliver of land on the plains.

The lack of snowpack is a major reason for the intense fire threats, including 'Particularly Dangerous Situation' warnings.

While snow last Friday temporarily slowed the decline, well-above-average temperatures this week are rapidly depleting the snowpack.

This rapid depletion could lead to Colorado's earliest-ever full snowpack melt.

Last week, the Arkansas basin was at 11% of average. This week, every basin in the state is down yet again. These percentages are relative to the average snowpack for the date, meaning the snowpack is dropping faster than it would in an average year.

A La Nia weather pattern drove much of the dry weather, but that pattern has now fully eroded. The Climate Prediction Center shows above-average precipitation is possible around the end of April into the beginning of May.

However, rain and snow do not have the same impacts on drought.

While beneficial rainfall is helpful, the state would need a significant amount of moisture to escape the current dangerous situation.

This story was reported on-air by a journalist and has been converted to this platform with the assistance of AI. Our editorial team verifies all reporting on all platforms for fairness and accuracy.

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It's no surprise how much of the state is experiencing drought conditions after the winter season that we just had. There are five different levels of drought and they can cause very different impacts to Colorado specifically.

These classifications are set up to help officials and first responders determine what actions need to be taken.

The scale starts at D0 or "abnormally dry" conditions. This is when conditions will transition into drought and irrigation will begin sooner than normal.

This can slow down the planting process, and create create deficits. This is what we are experiencing across parts of El Paso and Pueblo counties.

D1 or "moderate drought" can start to cause damage to crops and can even start to impact the ski season. Wildfires become more common with this level of drought.

D2 or "severe drought" will likely cause crops to be lost. Our snowpack starts to take a hit and can cause more problems in the long-term forecast.

D3 or "extreme drought" can cause major crop loss, and wildfires become more common. Fires can be hard to control due to the ground being so dry. In 2022, a fishery along the Yampa River had to close due to these conditions. Rafting, fishing, hunting, and skiing are reduced. Fish and other wildlife will be affected. This is usually when water restrictions are put into place.

Finally, D4 or "exceptional drought" is the worst kind of drought that we can experience. It causes major disruptions and our snowpack this year was a clear example of that. Currently, 22% of the state is experiencing these conditions. Dust storms and large wildfires become more common.

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Our snowpack is very important to Colorado, and will help to keep the rivers flowing at good levels through the summertime months. It also helps to keep the ground moist, and keep drought conditions at bay. This year, with record low snowpack, river levels are already dropping.

Our snowpack peaked on March 7, which is about four weeks earlier than normal. Since then the warm and dry conditions that we have been having have caused a sharp drop off in those levels. Even with some recent snowfall in the mountains, it was only enough to keep us afloat.

In order to keep these levels from dropping further, we would need constant rain and snow.

Colorado has weather stations set up around the state, and currently 95% sites are reporting the lowest or second lowest snow water equivalent values on record.

The National Weather Service has released their April through September forecast for how much water or streamflow certain rivers will have. The forecast for Canon City is only 39% of the normal streamflow. If we were at 100%, everything would be right at normal. Above the Pueblo reservoir 40% of the streamflow is expected.

The USGS Website has cameras that watch the Arkansas River and tracks the river levels. You can access that data here.

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Pueblo is experiencing one of its least snowy winters on record, raising concerns among residents about fire danger and the upcoming summer heat.

The city has recorded only 13.6 inches of snow this winter, marking the ninth-lowest seasonal snow total on record. If Pueblo picks up another tenth of an inch, it would tie with 2018 for the 10th least snowy winter. Over the last 30 years, Pueblo has averaged 28.3 inches of snow each winter.

The lack of moisture has caused trees to bloom several weeks early. The last accumulating snow in Pueblo fell on Jan. 25.

If the city does not receive more snow before the end of the winter season, it will beat the current record for the earliest last measurable snowfallset on Feb. 23, 1899by nearly a month.

"We're very concerned about because of fire danger," said Beth Micci, a resident of Monument on a walk along the Riverwalk and familiar with the lack of snow in Pueblo County.

"Concerned, um, you know, the state in general needs more moisture, not just for housing or where your homes are, but for wildlife and rivers and streams, fishing for him. So yeah, we're concerned," Micci added, referring to her husband Ed.

I asked another pair of Pueblo Residents - Tracy Chapman and Joyce Cronk, whether there was anything positive about the early season warmth.

"No, not at all. I just worry what summer's gonna bring if it's already getting 80, 85 degrees," said Joyce.

But, not everyone thought the situation was as unprecedented as it seemed.

"I think it's just nature taking its course. You, you can complain all you want to, or you can accept what you're given and live with it, you know. I mean, it's gonna be hot and dry, it's gonna be hot and dry," said Pueblo resident Dan Drake.

But, none of the residents I spoke to were happy about the lack of snow and all hoped to see more.

While Pueblo has been extremely dry, nearby Colorado Springs has received about 24.5 inches of snow so far this winter. That total is below average, but not by a significant margin.

This story was reported on-air by a journalist and has been converted to this platform with the assistance of AI. Our editorial team verifies all reporting on all platforms for fairness and accuracy.

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Rain is back in the forecast, but conditions are still remaining dry. This may seem a little backwards, but because of the air being so dry close to the surface, the rain falling isn't actually reaching the surface. With little moisture hitting the ground, it's hard for the ground to stay moist.

April is actually one of the more active months for fire danger. This month averages the most red flag warnings than any other month out of the year. The average is 9.7 since 2006.

This year's data hasn't been included in this data, but if we remain on this current track, this number is likely going to go up.

March has the second highest average for red flag warnings. This is because this time of year, so have gusty conditions and this will help to dry conditions across Colorado.

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If you have noticed wisps underneath the clouds in the last couple of weeks, you are seeing evaporating rain.

This phenomenon, which appears as haze or rain shafts dropping out of clouds but not making it all the way to the ground, happens frequently in Colorado for a few reasons.

First, storm bases in Colorado are often fairly high above the ground compared to other parts of the U.S. This means rain has further to fall to hit the ground.

Second, the air in Colorado is often very dry near the ground. When the rain falls into this dry air, it evaporates, similar to how a swamp cooler works.

When water evaporates, it cools the air. That cooling causes the air to sink rapidly. When the sinking air hits the ground, it spreads out and creates wind. This is why it is often suddenly gusty when you see those evaporating rain wisps nearby.

Ultimately, this means the local terrain is partly why eastern Colorado gets less rain than it otherwise would. A significant fraction of rain falling out of the clouds, doesn't make it to your garden.

This story was written and reported on-air by a journalist and was converted to this platform with the assistance of AI. Our editorial team verifies all reporting on all platforms for fairness and accuracy.

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It's no secret that drought conditions continue to worsen for Colorado, especially in the mountains. 100% of the state is now under some kind of drought. 21% of the state is experiencing exceptional conditions, which is the worst kind of conditions that we can see for drought.

Closer to southern Colorado, Colorado Springs is actually right at normal for the yearly precipitation amount. This can be a little deceiving with ongoing drought conditions. This is thanks to a winter storm that brought 9.4 inches of snowfall in a single day to the area. This gave the Springs a big boost to kick off the year. Since then, precipitation has been few and far between.

Place like Pueblo are now below average for their yearly precipitation at only 1.78". They normally have 1.95", which means they are down by 0.17" of precipitation.

Now, let's look at a place like Leadville where conditions are concerning. Normally, April has the third most precipitation for Leadville. This has not been the case and this month, they have only picked up 0.22". By the end of the month, they normally have 4.28 inches, but they only have 2.08". That means Leadville would need over two inches of precipitation to catch up.

Even though rain is in the forecast, the Climate Prediction Center's outlook shows dry conditions lasting throughout the rest of the month.

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Weather forecasting is challenging, making it rare to find a single number that can tell you most of what you need to know about any type of weather setup. Convective Available Potential Energy, or CAPE, is an exception.

CAPE is a single number that -with a few caveats- tells our forecast team how likely lightning is above your house. It measures how unstable the atmosphere is by calculating the difference in density between warm, wet air near the ground and cold, dry air further up.

Colorado has some of the best ingredients in the country for thunderstorms. Thanks to the Rocky Mountains, there is plenty of cold, dry air in the upper atmosphere. When warm, wet air close to the ground sits below this cold mountain air, it rises upward like a ball floating in water because it is less dense.

A bigger CAPE number means the warm air is warmer and the cold air is colder, creating a bigger contrast. Higher CAPE numbers tell us directly how unstable the atmosphere is in a given place and how strong a thunderstorm can get. There is no other single number that gives us so much useful information about storm potential. Notably - we can even see this on special vertical graphs, so we can visually determine where in the atmosphere instability is strongest.

We can divide CAPE units into different categories to understand storm potential -

CAPE tells us how much air wants to rise. Big CAPE numbers indicate the air wants to rise violently and aggressively, showing how fast the air will move in a thunderstorm. Powerful updrafts fling water above the height at which airplanes fly, where the air is very cold. This creates lots of ice crystals that crash into each other and spark lightning. Those violent updrafts also hold up ice in the clouds, which produces hail.

While CAPE is

the only ingredient needed for severe weather, it does tell you how strong storms can be if they form. CAPE is literally the "thunderstorm fuel" our team references on-air. Like any fuel, you still need a spark. For a thunderstorm, that's anything that lifts the air enough to get to a place where CAPE is present. A front can do that. So can regular old solar heating on a warm sunny day. An upper level low can also cause air to rise. So it's possible to have CAPE and not get a thunderstorm. But what CAPE does tell you is how strong a storm's updraft can be at a given time if you can get a storm to form.

Colorado's unique environment is critical for turning a strong updraft into a monster storm. This requires a second ingredient: wind shear, which is a change in wind speed and direction with height. While wind shear is hard to get in most of the country (routinely), it happens quite a lot in Colorado. The mountains naturally tend to create an upslope flow on summer afternoons near the ground, while the air in the upper part of the atmosphere flows in from the west. This regular change in wind direction helps us use available storm energy more effectively.

The upshot is: when we forecast, we are not just looking at simulated radar; we are looking for where the pockets of energy are strongest, because that is where the storms form.

This story was reported on- air by a journalist and has been converted to this platform with the assistance of AI. Our editorial team verifies all reporting on all platforms for fairness and accuracy.

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April is bringing some much needed change to the forecast with moisture finally on the way. Now that afternoons are starting to get warmer, and we have some moisture, this will create some storms.

It's not completely out of the ordinary to see storms in April, and severe ones at that. Last year, April had 11 severe thunderstorm warning issued, but we have as as many as 20 issued in April.

It's important to note that severe weather can happen at any time of the year, but severe weather chances significantly increase during the spring and summer months. This is because our jetstream gets a little more active, and will send low-pressure systems across the Rockies.

There's a couple of ingredients that we need our atmosphere to have in order for storms to form. The three main ones are warm air, moisture, and something to start these thunderstorms. In Colorado's case the mountains can actually help to get storms popping up.

Severe weather season lasts from late April through September. The peak season is May through August. This is also when storms are likely to be the most severe.

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While temperatures have taken a tumble in the last week, do not let that fool you. Each day, the sun is currently gaining about 0.4 degrees of maximal height in the sky, also known as the solar zenith angle.

The UV index is a term you hear all the time, but like dew points, it can be difficult to actually understand. Thanks to Colorados high elevation, our UV index spikes faster

. That means you can now get a sunburn very quickly.

UV is short for ultraviolet. It is a type of invisible, high-energy light that gets emitted by the sun. While you cannot see it with your eyes, this light damages your skin when it hits it. That damage can cause a sunburn, skin cancer, and various other health issues.

UV light is divided into categories A, B, and C, with each letter corresponding to higher energy - and therefore, more damaging light. The ozone layer high in the atmosphere blocks almost all of the C-type, and most of the A-type will reach the ground year-round. The

strongly depends on how high the sun is in the sky, and this is the type we are therefore most concerned about for health risks. That does not mean UV-A is harmless. Type B is the primary type responsible for sunburns.

The more direct the light from the sun, the more type B radiation (wavelengths of 280-320 nm) hits the ground and you. There are two main drivers that determine how direct the light from the sun is.

First is how high the sun is in the sky known as the solar altitude. It's the angle above the horizon to the center of the sun. The closer to straight overhead the sun is (90 degrees), the less distance that light is traveling through the atmosphere to reach you. The gases in the atmosphere absorb short wavelength light like UV-B - with ozone absorbing most UV-B rays, and a few other particulate gasses also playing a role.

So: the more direct the light is, the less atmosphere, which means less of this light gets absorbed and more of it hits the ground (and you).

The second factor is your elevation above sea level, and it is for the same reason. As you gain elevation, there is less atmosphere between you and space, so the scattering and absorption effects of the atmosphere are weaker.

That is why Colorados elevation is so critical. Colorado Springs sits more than 6,000 feet above sea level, with Pueblo at around 4,700 feet. In Colorado Springs, the intensity of sunlight is about 20-22 percent stronger than at sea level. In Pueblo, it is about 15 percent stronger. In the mountains, it can be about 50 to 60 percent stronger than at sea level!

The UV index is a standardized way to measure how quickly the sun will damage your skin. The scale ranges from 0 to 11-or- higher. If the UV index doubles, the time for your skin to burn chops in half. At a UV index between 8 and 10, the burn time for fair skin is only about 10 to 25 minutes.

The index includes the effects of altitude and cloud cover. Altitude increases UV exposure, while cloud cover decreases it, but does not eliminate it. It gets calculated by estimating the amounts of UV-A, B, and C light hitting a given location, and multiplying each by a weight factor. C is most harmful - and has the most weight, followed by B, followed by A. This all gets added together and converted into the index you see.

The important things to know about UV index are that it is

, the risk isn't higher in Colorado because you're "closer to the sun" - it's because of the

- and the

. But - on a clear day, the UV index in Colorado Springs and Pueblo is now above an eight. We are now eight days away from a solar zenith (peak solar angle) above 60 degrees. We are not far from seeing peaks in the UVI 9 range.

What this means for you: if you are hiking and the temperature is 40 degrees up in the mountains, your skin is being blasted in the way it would if you were on vacation in the Bahamas.

Even though it does not feel hot, you should be applying SPF 30 or greater sunscreen regularly now if you are going outside for more than 10 minutes in the middle of the day.

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As Colorados snowpack continues to decline, drought conditions are becoming more widespread across the state.

This weekend, I ran into a viewer who asked if there was an actual definition for drought. It is a good question because a lot of science goes into the drought maps we show.

Drought is

just a way to measure rain and snow. To figure out where drought is and how severe it is, scientists from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration and the U.S. Department of Agriculture look at a blend of data. In short - there is NOT a single definition to tell you "if you're a certain percentage short of rainfall over six months...that's a minor drought".

There are multiple types of drought.

Agricultural drought looks at how a lack of moisture impacts the ability of farmers to grow crops.

Hydrological drought is based on how a lack of rainfall or snowpack impacts river flow or reservoir levels.

Meteorological drought is directly tied to a lack of precipitation compared to the average for an area.

Ecological drought involves a longer-duration deficit in available water supplies that stresses the environment.

Finally, Socio-economic drought measures things like energy production deficits due to a lack of water.

Some types of drought, like meteorological, can develop quickly. Others, like hydrologic drought caused by a lack of snowpack, develop slowly and take longer to improve.

The U.S. Drought Monitor map is a

of all of these types of drought, and short and long-term weather patterns. Recognizing when a drought starts and ends requires understanding what is normal for a given location over time. If an area has been in a drought for a long time, it can take more than one or two rainstorms to end it, and heat can dry things out quickly too.

Scientists evaluate multiple timescales, from weekly to multiple years. They look at streamflow, reservoir levels, and evaporation demand, which measures how thirsty the atmosphere is and how easily water leaves soil and plants.

This part may surprise you. The drought map is ultimately

; it's not defined by a specific number or automatic formula.

The lead author starts with the prior week's map and reviews all drought indicators. Sometimes one indicator shows improvement while another shows worsening conditions, so experts must determine which impact is more relevant.

The Drought Monitor provides a recent snapshot of conditions, not a forecast. It is released on Thursdays after a data collection period running from Wednesday to Tuesday. Authors then have two days to review the most recent data. In practice, the map will not move a location by more than one intensification category per week, though the USDA notes things can move faster in the event of a major storm.

Conditions are defined on a scale ranging from D0, meaning abnormally dry, to D4, meaning exceptional drought. While there is no set rule, D0 indicators are generally between the 20th and 30th percentile. D1 indicators are in the 10th to 20th percentile, D2 between the fifth and 10th percentile, D3 between the second and fifth percentile, and D4 between the zero and second percentile. In other words, when looking at things like reservoir levels, streamflow, snowpack, precipitation deficits, evaporation demand and more - those percentiles come into play for the person who is building the drought map. They also speak to local experts.

Looking at the current drought map, which measured conditions between March 18 and March 24, only nine percent of Colorado's land is drought-free. About 75 percent of the state is in at least a minor drought. But, a significant portion of southern Colorado comprises that 9% - including Colorado Springs, Pueblo, and portions of eastern Teller County near Woodland Park.

That's because southern Colorado is often dry in the winter months. Much of the winter precipitation in the state falls in the mountains. So, even if overall precipitation amounts aren't impressive - it's difficult for southern Colorado to develop drought during the winter season.

This week's map was produced by Rocky Bilotta at the National Centers for Environmental Information.

This story was reported on-air by a journalist and has been converted to this platform with the assistance of AI. Our editorial team verifies all reporting on all platforms for fairness and accuracy.

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March 2026 wasn't just warm, it was unprecedented in Colorado. The last two weeks of the month brought n historic heat wave due to an unusually strong ridge of high pressure over the western U.S.

Heat by the numbers

In Colorado Springs and Pueblo, March 2026 will go down as the warmest March, by a long shot. Roughly 25% of the month had record high temperatures.

According to data from the National Weather Service in Pueblo, the average temperature in Colorado Springs in March was 50.8, 9.7 above average. The next warmest March on record was 48 in 2012. Records in Colorado Springs date back to 1895.

The average high for the month was 66.1, 11.2 above average. The average low was 35.5, 8.2 above average.

This year also brought the hottest single March day in Colorado Springs, when it reached 86 on March 21. This breaks the previous March high of 81. This year, Colorado Springs reached 81 or warmer five times.

Both Colorado Springs and Pueblo recorded eight daily record high temperatures tied or broken.

Pueblo also recorded its hottest-ever March day. On the March 21, Pueblo rose to 93, breaking the previous March record of 86. Yes, that also means it was the first 90 day on record for March in Pueblo since records began in 1888. In 2026, Pueblo experienced three days at 90 or higher.

The average high temperature in Pueblo this March was 72.4, 11.8 above average. The average low was 33.9, which is 6.8 above average.

According to the Colorado Climate Center, the all-time March record for the entire state was also broken. Burlington reached 99 on the 25th, and Campo did as well on the 26th, breaking the previous Colorado March record of 96 in Holly in 1907.

In a blog post, the Colorado Climate Center emphasizes that "theres no question that this will go down as the warmest March on record for Coloradoaround 3-4F warmer than any other March in the last 132 yearsonce all the numbers are tallied."

Outlier in moisture

Technically, Colorado Springs and Pueblo are doing well in terms of precipitation this year, due to a very few but high-producing precipitation events.

On March 3, both cities received record rainfall with 0.74" in Colorado Springs and 0.73" in Pueblo. This put Colorado Springs in a surplus of 0.24" with 1.03" of precipitation for the month. Pueblo received a total of 0.88" of precipitation, only 0.06" above average.

Snowfall, however, came in low with three inches in Colorado Springs, 2.7" below average. Pueblo did not record measurable snow, when March typically sees 4.5."

The rain event has kept a portion of east-central Colorado at "abnormally dry", while most of the state is experiencing moderate to exceptional drought.

This March heatwave also sent our already abysmal snowpack into a nose-dive. The white line in the chart below shows how quickly the snowpack was depleted in late March, adding insult to injury during an already historically low year.

Snowpack typically peaks on April 8th in Colorado. As of April 1st, statewide snowpack is 22% of average. On the current trajectory, snowpack would fully melt roughly two months early this year.

In the same blog post, the Colorado Climate Center states that "its now safe to conclude that this has been the worst year for Colorado snowpack in recorded history."

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Snow is

falling in Colorado's mountains today, but the current storm system will not be a cure for a snowpack that has melted rapidly over the last three weeks.

Many cities statewide experienced their hottest March on record; it was likely the hottest March on record statewide. It has not snowed across most of Colorado in more than three weeks, leaving only a little more than three inches of water in the snowpack. On average, Colorado's snowpack

around April 8.

The impact is already being felt across the state. Nine ski areas have closed weeks early, with more set to follow this weekend.

The storm that began Tuesday night could will bring more than a foot of snow to some mountain zones, particularly toward the San Juans. However, snow levels are high (around 9,000-9,500 feet), meaning rain for the lower elevations. The storm is a modest boost - and snowpack will likely increase as a result over the next few days. But, that will not move the needle on the bigger picture.

I took a lap on Mount Sherman on Sunday, a 14er near Fairplay which showed unbelievably little snow on the highest peaks. Normally in March, the slopes are covered and avalanche risk is a major concern. Instead, the conditions looked more like late June. Dozens of hikers were on the peak, and winter gear was not required.

Last week's snowpack map showed southern basins in the 20th percentile range. This week, the Upper Rio Grande basin is at 9 percent of average. The Arkansas basin has only about one inch of liquid water left, which is about 20 percent of the previous record low for today's date (5.4"). To reach the record low, the basin would need approximately 50-100" of snow to accumulate. We aren't going to get that.

For hikers: while many high-altitude trails were clear last weekend, the new snow means winter gear will likely be needed for those same spots this weekend. It will melt out again, but conditions won't be as bare as what you just experienced.

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Nearly 25% of the days in March, brought record-breaking heat. As we slide into a new month, the same question lingers. Will we experience the same record breaking heat?

The Climate Prediction Center tracks long term forecasts, and their outlook has Colorado likely continuing with the above average temperatures. How above average we are going to get is still on the table.

Colorado Springs averages temperatures in the upper-50s at the start of April. For Pueblo temperatures are usually in the mid-60s. Throughout the month highs rise by about 5 to 6 degrees.

For precipitation, Colorado Springs averages 1.45 inches, while pueblo averages 1.57 inches. Hopefully this month we are able to reach that. The start of the month looks good, with above average precipitation likely. The Climate Prediction Center has these conditions turning to below average by the end of the month.

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Fire danger has been in the forecast for a while now, and you may have heard the first alert weather team explain the concern in terms of "elevated" or "critical".

There are three main categories: elevated, critical, and extreme. You can think of this on a 1 to 3 scale with 3 being the most dangerous conditions.

When red flag warnings are issued it means that we have winds of 25mph or higher and humidity values 15% or lower. These conditions are prime for wildfires to start and spread.

When we have "elevated" conditions, it means that conditions have quite reached red flag criteria. There is still a concern for fire danger, and sparks can still cause fires to spread quickly.

"Critical" conditions mean we have or are going to hit those conditions. When we hit these marks wildfires can easily get out of control.

It's rare, but we can have extreme conditions where winds exceed these conditions as well as humidity values. This doesn't mean that every time we get above 25mph or lower than 15%, that we have extreme conditions.

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As we track more record heat today in southern Colorado, our snowpack is already suffering from last week's warmth.

After peaking on March 9 at only 8.5 inches of liquid water, Colorado's snowpack is in freefall. The snowpack is down more than 2.5 inches of water equivalent in a week. There is no precedent for a drop like this at this point in March. On average, Colorado has nine more inches of water in the snowpack today. The prior daily record low is more than 3" above where we stand today.

Last week, the state was already in very bad shape, but most basins were above half of average. However, last week's heatwave was crushing. All southern basins, including the local Arkansas basin, are now in the 20th percentile range compared to average. There is really not much snow left in these basins.

Along with seeing the lowest ever peak snowpack, we are now in the peak of a second heatwave, which will cause further declines. This means we are watching the potential to see the earliest ever full melt off. Currently, the earliest melt date is between June 4th and June 5th according to data from the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA).

An increasing amount of the state is experiencing drought. Only about 15 percent of the state is drought-free, and that number is dropping weekly.

We are likely to see a temporary pattern change as we begin April with a more active storm track bringing in rain and snow. But even if we do get some snow in April, a higher sun angle and warmer temperatures will make it hard for this snow to stick around.

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Colorado's snowpack is continuing to decline with warm and dry conditions ongoing.

Snowpack typically peaks in early April in Colorado, but this year's peak -so far- came on March 9, when the snowpack held 8.4 inches of water. It has since declined to about 8.2 inches, and with record heat expected in the coming days, that number is likely to drop significantly by next week.

This year is on track to see the lowest peak snowpack in the modern era (since 1986 - when the SNOWTEL dataset begins). The current record low mark was set in 2002, when snowpack peaked at 9.9 inches.

Statewide, snowpack is currently nearly 6 inches of water equivalent below average.

The San Juans and the Upper Rio Grande Basin have seen notable declines over the past week and since the end of February. The San Juan Basin has now entered record low territory for the first time this season.

The ridge of high pressure driving this week's heat is expected to rebuild again next week. While it may not be quite as strong, early summer-like warmth is still expected statewide. More bluntly: it will - again - be HOT.

At this point the question is less whether we'll see a record low snowpack peak and more how long our snowpack will be able to stick around.

There are signs of a more active weather pattern in April, which could help slow the losses. However, a high sun angle and warming temperatures in April generally make it hard to add to the snowpack if storms are not highly consistent.

This story was reported on-air by a journalist and has been converted to this platform with the assistance of AI. Our editorial team verifies all reporting on all platforms for fairness and accuracy.

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The past few weeks have been very warm and dry, and this has allowed for trees to bloom early. While many will be enjoying the warmer weather, for some this means the return of allergies.

Dr. Eric Caplan, a board certified allergy and asthma specialist, explains "pollen is going to be airborne and its going to stay airborne. Unfortunately there's not going to be any moisture that will help wash that pollen out."

He would be right. There's no sign in the forecast that moisture will arrive anytime soon. If you struggle with allergies, though, there are some way to help with your symptoms.

"Sometimes people are taking over the counter medication or doing the nasal rinses, said Dr. Caplan. "Filters are also super important. If you are still suffering despite the things you are supposed to be doing that's when it's time to come in and see a specialist."

This week, pollen levels will be moderate to high. This means that it's time to break out those medications and take extra precautions to make sure you are comfortable.

These temperatures are also not going anywhere anytime soon. They will steadily cool down, but in terms of 80s and even 90s. This week looks like it will be the thick of it.

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What should feel like early spring is feeling more like the middle of summer, and the heat is just getting started.

A powerful heat dome is parked over the Southwest, bringing a weather pattern that is unprecedented for March.

A heat dome is a large area of high pressure that forms in the middle of the atmosphere, thousands of feet higher than even the tallest mountains in Colorado.

Think of it like a giant lid in the sky. That lid creates sinking air, which warms temperatures, dries out conditions, and keeps skies sunny.

Heat domes are not rare, they appear every summer. What makes this one unusual is the timing.

The pattern feeds on itself, warm weather helps strengthen the ridge, leading to even hotter conditions the following day.

Normally, the jet stream dips south to bring cooler air to the region. Right now, it is bulging far to the north, allowing this summer-like heat to completely dominate the pattern weeks ahead of schedule.

Because a June weather pattern is arriving in March, meteorologists are tracking the potential for multiple days of record-shattering temperatures.

It is not just going to feel like summer this week for the atmosphere, it essentially is.

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Even though the week started off snowy and cold, warm temperatures will be back in the forecast this week. A dominant ridge of high pressure will cook the western half of the United States throughout the week.

This pattern is much more typical during the summer months rather than Winter or Spring. In fact, March is considered Colorado's snowiest month thanks to low pressure systems that track across the region.

Last year, Colorado Springs didn't receive their first 80 degree day until April 12th. For Pueblo the first 80 degree day was earlier on March 24th. This is not completely out of the ordinary for Pueblo.

Our current forecast has Pueblo potentially getting into the 90s over the weekend. If Pueblo were to hit this, it would be the earliest 90 degree day on record.

It's important that if you have any outdoor activities to drink plenty of water and wear sunscreen.

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Southern Colorado has already recorded 25 red flag warning days in 2026, meaning roughly one in every three days so far this year has carried elevated fire danger, a pace that shatters anything seen in the past 20 years.

March is historically one of the busiest months for red flag warnings in the region, but this month alone, through Saturday, southern Colorado will have seen 10 red flag warning days. That is more than the average for the entire month of March.

On average, April is the busiest month for Red Flag Warnings, with March, May, and June varying each year for second through fourth place.

Colorado Springs Fire Chief Randy Royal has been with the Colorado Springs Fire Department for 30 years and has watched Red Flag Warnings increase dramatically over that time.

"If you go back in time...Red Flag Warnings...that you all are familiar with...two to three...to five a year was normal. And that was back in the 80s to about 2010," Royal said. But he went on to point out they've become much more common since, particularly within the last few years.

"In the last 12 years...we have seen in Colorado the 5 most destructive fires in our history," Royal added.

The relentless fire danger this year is being driven by the position of the jet stream. This winter, it has consistently steered storms north of Colorado, allowing warmth to build and quickly dry out grasses and other fuels. High pressure has also been dominating the western pattern, leading to mainly clear skies.

While the eastern plains are not technically in a drought, that does not reduce the risk. Grasses are considered one-hour fuels, meaning they can dry out and become explosive fuel in a matter of hours. We don't see that risk drop until the spring green-up.

There is no sign of this dangerous pattern easing up anytime soon. The best step you can take right now is to make sure you are prepared.

This story was reported on-air by a journalist and has been converted to this platform with the assistance of AI. Our editorial team verifies all reporting on all platforms for fairness and accuracy.

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Colorado's snowpack has not kept pace with even the worst SNOWTEL-era snowpack curve in the last several weeks, and conditions are likely to worsen significantly in the next two weeks.

Over the past two weeks, snowpack has decreased from 63% of average to 61% of average. Keep in mind: if we don't get enough

snow, our snowpack percentages go down. That is to say: 5/10 (50%), is a higher percentage than 5/12 (41.6%). If the average goes up, and snowpack itself does not, the snowpack percentage goes down. That's what that number means. But the more alarming development is that the snowpack itself not just the percentage is now physically shrinking.

According to data from the USDA, the snow water equivalent, which measures the amount of water contained in the snowpack, dropped from 8.6 inches on Tuesday to 8.4* inches today. That kind of decline is highly unusual for early March and raises the possibility that snowpack may have already peaked for the season. This is not certain as April patterns aren't in focus yet - but the long range trends aren't good, either.

Basin-by-basin maps show little change from last week, with some basins up a percent or two and others in the southwestern tier down a percent or two. Most of Colorado's water supply and much of the West's comes from winter snowpack.

The outlook is expected to deteriorate further. An intense ridge of high pressure will build across the southwestern United States next week, bringing widespread, record-breaking heat to Colorado in the middle to end of next week. The combination of the higher sun angle typical of early March (providing more energy to melt snow) and that intense heat is likely to rapidly accelerate snowmelt.

Looking further ahead, the Climate Prediction Center is forecasting above-average temperatures across Colorado through May, along with below-average precipitation through the same period. Long range models, such as the ECMWF Weeklies, and global weather patterns, back this possibility up. While conditions in April remain uncertain, the overall trend is not encouraging.

This is a serious situation, and the outlook doesn't leave much room for optimism.

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