Weather - Forecast

Jul 26, 2014 6:10 PM by John Dissauer

Weekend Project; Build an Ark

Update 6:10pm:  The National Weather Service has issued a Flash Flood Watch for parts of southern Colorado.  The watch will be in effect from 8am through 9pm Sunday.

A cold front is projected to pass through the region Sunday morning.  Behind the front, winds will turn out of the east-southeast.  This will take moisture and push it up the side of the moutains aiding in shower and thunderstorm development.

Timing wise... It looks like the best chance for heavy showers and thunderstorms will be during the afternoon and especially the evening.  - Meteorologist John Dissauer

Update 4:05pm:  New data is in from this morning's runs of computer models.  Impressively, long range models have trended up with rainfall projections by 25%-30%.

A two computer model average suggests 4.24" of rain for Colorado Springs and 2.89" for Pueblo through 6am Saturday (August 2).  Comparing to the normal rainfall for the same time period, it works out to approximately 540% the norm. - Meteorologist John Dissauer

Update 8:35am:  Sunny skies this morning will allow temperatures to quickly jump in to the 90s before noon.  High temperatures should top out in the 80's in the mountains, 90's and 100's east of the mountains.

By early afternoon clouds will start to increase from the west.  Showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop in the mountains and then move east.  I suspect we will have a few hit or miss showers/thunderstorms during the early afternoon along I-25, especially in El Paso County.  By late afternoon and early this evening there should be more shower and thunderstorm development along the I-25 corridor.  Showers and thunderstorms that do develop will eventually move east to the eastern Plains of Colorado.

BUILD THE ARK

All data are pointing to a wet period for southern Colorado starting Sunday afternoon.  The way it looks as of Saturday morning, this could last for the next seven to eight days.

Computer models continue their bullish feelings towards rainfall.  Taking a two computer model average of last night's runs suggest 2.97" of rain for Colorado Springs and 2.17" for Pueblo through 6pm Friday.  To give some context, that is approximately 400% the normal rainfall for both locations through the time period.  Also, the numbers are up about 8% from Friday morning's data.

Bottom line... Flashflooding could become an issue, especially Sunday through Wednesday.  It is something we will continue to monitor. - Meteorologist John Dissauer

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