May 14, 2014 7:24 AM by Stephen Bowers
A wind flow from the northwest aloft is keeping the overall depth of the atmosphere cold. As that northwesterly flow relaxes in the next 24-48 hours, the cold aloft will also relax, and the atmosphere as a whole will be able to warm so that at the ground temperatures can warm through the weekend. Today, however, that cold air aloft will help to contribute to scattered showers, especially this afternoon. As the saying goes, warm air rises. The colder the air above that rising warm air, the more readily that warm air will rise. That comes into play today, and we have enough moisture just above the ground that I expect some showers will develop this afternoon.
In that deep cold air, temperatures dropped into the 30's overnight with teens and 20's in the high elevations. The wind has become calm, so wind chill is not an issue this morning. The clouds cleared overnight, and the early morning dose of sunshine will warm us quickly. By 10 AM, the temperature maps boasts a lot of 50's, and even those of us not in the 50's will be close to 50 except in the high elevations. By noon, lower 50's hold on along I-25, while areas along the Arkansas River Valley and in the Southeastern Plains will warm to near 60. After noon, showers begin developing. They will be scattered about Southeastern Colorado, but scattered means they will be hit-or-miss in nature. The high elevations will be most favored for the showers and high elevation snow around 2 PM with temperatures in the 50's and 60's and 40's in the high elevations. By 5 PM, those showers are moving out of the mountains, but they remain hit-or-miss in nature as temperatures hover in the 50's and 60's. Showers will fade quickly after sunset. High temperatures will be in the 50's and 60's.
Moisture content actually stays high enough for tomorrow that with a similar weather pattern we could see some more of these scattered showers. The pattern doesn't change all that much on Friday, but by Saturday the warming aloft will be a little more drastic. That warming high above the ground will slow the rising of the warm air near the ground, and while some clouds could be around they will not be able to grow thick and bulky to produce the showers this weekend. With fewer clouds, even warmer temperatures come into play this weekend, and highs will climb back into the 70's and 80's and stay there through Tuesday. A weak disturbance moves through late Monday and Tuesday that will increase the downslope wind, which could increase temperatures a little more for early next week.