Aug 21, 2014 8:24 AM by Stephen Bowers
We have been talking about an increase in rain for the end of this week, and that still looks to be in the works for tomorrow. As we're analyzing the new weather data this morning, however, we notice we have some things working against us for a lot of rain today... the wind doesn't work with the terrain to bring about widespread rain.
The weather pattern shows us a large low pressure trough digging into the western states. A cold front ahead of the trough is forming some intense thunderstorms over the Upper Midwest. High pressure has moved away from us and into the Deep South and will help today and tomorrow to increase the atmosphere's moisture content. That low pressure trough digging down from the north is one of the things working against us. It will create a downslope wind this afternoon. We need an upslope wind for a good soaking rainfall. Even still we have had a few showers over the Plains overnight. The other thing working against us is there just isn't much water vapor in the air... it's far more abundant over the Plains than near the mountains, which suggests the potential for some isolated showers over the Plains as we warm into the 80's and 90's this afternoon. Even still, moisture is much more plentiful over Kansas. That moisture will back up to the mountains tomorrow, but for today it stays far enough to our east that it will limit shower and thunderstorm development.
We will warm through the 60's and into the low-to-mid 70's by 10 AM with some clouds and still plenty of sun. By noon many of us warm easily into the 80's near the Arkansas River and in the Plains, while higher spots including Colorado Springs will hold back in the 70's. Nearly everyone is in the 80's by 2 PM and high temperatures in the 90's are in this afternoon along the Arkansas Valley and in the Southeastern Plains.
Rain looks like a better bet tomorrow, and that will come with noticeably cooler temperatures. Saturday is a warmer drier day. Rain and cooler temperatures return for Sunday and Monday, but the rain will become more widespread on Tuesday as a cold front moves through. Expect drying for Wednesday after the passage of the cold front.