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May 16, 2014 2:54 PM by John Dissauer

The Loooooong Ranger: May 17 - June 15

Latest run of the experimental loooooooong range computer model is in.  I've had a chance to look at the data and make a few observations of what could come between May 17 and June 15.

One thing to remember, you should take all of the thoughts with a MAJOR grain of salt. This is only an experiemental computer model and not reality. You should not get too hung up on details just yet. Things can and likely will change.

Enough with the disclaimer, on to the observations:

  • Warm weather in southern United States May 21-23.
  • Upper-level low develops in western United States May 20.
  • Well above normal temperatures in the northern Plains and south-central Canada May 22-25.
  • Warm-up in southwest United States in through the northern Rockies (Idaho, western Montana) May 27-30.
  • Warm-up in Colorado through the central/northern Plains May 30-June 1.
  • East coast storm develops May 30-June 1.
  • Warm-up in Iowa, Missouri, Kansas, Illinois and Oklahoma June 1-2.
  • Warm-up in Indiana, Ohio, Kentucky, West Virginia, Virginia and North Carolina June 1-3.
  • Pacific storm develops and impacts the northwest United States June 2-5.
  • Warm-up in southern United States/central Plains/Missouri June 10-11.
  • Warm-up in desert southwest (California, Arizona, Utah, New Mexico) June 12-15.

Keep in mind, the model is just that. A computer model. The farther out the model looks, the higher the possible error rate. The key to look at this kind of data is not to look at specifics but instead trends and long wave patterns.  - Meteorologist John Dissauer

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