May 24, 2014 9:28 AM by Stephen Bowers
A Flash Flood Watch is in effect today from 1 PM until midnight for El Paso, Pueblo, Fremont, and Teller Counties and for the Wet Mountains and the Rampart Range.
All is quiet this morning, but a plume of moisture extending over the top of us from the south will be the fuel needed for this afternoon's upslope breeze to develop another round of showers and thunderstorms this afternoon evening. The moisture is being pulled into our area by low pressure to our west. High pressure over the Great Lakes is helping out. That low pressure circulation to our west has not been in a hurry to move for the past three days. It cut off from the jet stream early this week, but an area of low pressure over the Pacific Ocean embedded within the jet stream will finally give a push to the low pressure that has brought our rain so that it will finally move on and leave us alone. We will stay dry into the early afternoon. By 10 AM, temperatures will warm from the 50's into the 60's. By noon, some 70's start to show up on the map. It's especially from noon to 2 PM when showers begin developing in the higher elevations west of I-25. That is a trend that persists through 5 PM, but many areas will stay dry east of the mountains. Our StormCast picks up on a round of rain and thunderstorms, potentially producing heavy rain, from 5 PM to 10 PM. That seems to be when our biggest threat for flash flooding increases.
Through the afternoon, scattered showers and a few thunderstorms will be around. Some of the stronger thunderstorms could be hail or wind producers. High temperatures will be in the 60's and 70's.
Coverage of the afternoon showers decreases tomorrow and decreases even more on Monday as humidity decreases. The decreasing humidity will allow temperatures to change more rapidly, too, so expect warming afternoons and slightly cooler mornings throughout next week. The afternoon upslope breeze could still mean a stray shower or two each day, particularly over the mountains or very near the mountains. A slow-moving low pressure area will approach us toward the end of next week, increasing the coverage of showers and thunderstorms by Friday.