Weather - Forecast

May 10, 2014 11:48 AM by John Dissauer

Red Flag Warning Saturday; Winter Storm Watch Sunday

We should have a nice day today in southern Colorado.  Skies are starting out mainly sunny.  As we go through the day, clouds will begin to increase turning skies mostly cloudy to partly cloudy.  Late this afternoon and early this evening there is a small chance for a few isolated showers or a thunderstorm to develop near the Pike's Peak region.  Once the sun sets, the threat for rain goes away.

High temperatures this afternoon will top out in the 70°s and 80°s.  Warmest temperatures will be found over the southeastern Plains of Colorado.  (Colorado Springs: 71° | Pueblo: 80°)


The National Weather Service has issued a Red Flag Warning for parts of the southeastern Plains of Colorado.  (see image at right)  The warning is in effect from 1pm until 8pm Saturday.


An area of low pressure is still taking aim on Colorado for the weekend.  The storm will produce snow across much of the state.  It will begin later today in the western third of the state and then slowly move east.  For more details on the storm, be sure to check out this story I wrote yesterday.  Many of the details are still the same.

In yesterday's story I included numbers from computer models as to how much moisture there would be with the system.  Here is a look at the numbers from the overnight computer models.  The first set is looking at how much precipitation a 27-computer model average suggests will fall through 6pm Monday.

- Colorado Springs: 0.62"
- La Junta: 0.34"
- Lamar: 0.22"
- Monument Hill: 1.13"
- Pueblo: 0.51"

I still expect rain to initially fall in lower elevations early Sunday afternoon.  The rain will then change over to snow, especially in Fremont, Teller and El Paso counties.  Here is a look at the 27-computer model average of precipitation that would fall as all snow per the overnight computer models.

- Colorado Springs: 0.55"
- La Junta: 0.00"
- Lamar: 0.00"
- Monument Hill: 0.87"
- Pueblo: 0.00"

Even a simple 10:1 rain to snow ratio would crank out some hefty snow totals (Colorado Springs: 5.5" | Monument Hill: 8.7").

Unfortunately, the overnight computer models have all come in with varying solutions as to how much snow will fall and at this point there is low confidence in thoughts concerning exact amounts.  We should have a better handle on how much snow we are looking at later this afternoon and will have projections on News 5 newscasts this evening.  - Meteorologist John Dissauer


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