Weather - Forecast

Jul 27, 2014 8:25 PM by John Dissauer

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Update 6:00pm: A Flash Flood Watch continues through 9pm for much of southern Colorado. Showers and thunderstorms started right on time... late afternoon and will continue through the late evening.

So far there hasn't been much activity in Teller and El Paso counties, but that could change in the next couple of hours.  A high resolution computer model (see right image) is suggesting showers and thunderstorms will move southeast out of Park County and move in to Teller and El Paso counties.  I bracket the hours between 7pm and 10pm for this to happen. - Meteorologist John Dissauer

Update 9:04am: A cold front passed through southern Colorado early Sunday morning.  Behind the front, winds are expected to turn out of the east-southeast.  The winds at the surface will push low-level moisture to the mountains which will air shower and thunderstorm development later this afternoon and evening.

I expect there to be several dry hours this morning and early afternoon.  By mid to late afternoon showers and thunderstorms will begin to develop over the mountains and push east towards the I-25 corridor.  By this later this evening, rain will be moving over the southeastern Plains.


The National Weather Service has issued a Flash Flood Watch for parts of southern Colorado (see above image).  The watch will be in effect from 11am until 9pm Sunday.

A Flash Flood Watch means that conditions may develop that lead to flash flooding.


With the increased chance for rain, temperatures will be dropping.  Highs today will top out in the 70's and 80's... Roughly 10° to 20° cooler than Saturday.

Below normal temperatures are expected to continue through the work week.  It looks like we might get back to near normal by the end of next weekend.


As has been advertised for several days, a pattern shift is taking place today.  We are moving in to a period of wet weather for southern Colorado... Monsoon season is turning active.

Computer models have been very consistent projecting heavy rains starting Sunday and continuing through at least mid-week.

Short term -- A 27-computer model average suggests 1.31" of rain for Colorado Springs and 1.00" for Pueblo through 6am Tuesday.  This is roughly 600% the normal rainfall for both locations.  The key to the numbers are not getting hung up on the specific rainfall projection, but instead looking at the percent of normal.  This is a good indication that there is potential for a lot of rain.

Long term -- Taking a look at a 2-compter model (long range data) rainfall projection suggests 3.04" of rain for Colorado Springs and 2.19" for Pueblo through 6pm Saturday.  This is approximately 350% the normal for the time period.

The biggest concern will be today through Wednesday, with Tuesday being the bullseye.  - Meteorologist John Dissauer


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