Weather - Forecast

Jul 13, 2014 6:12 PM by John Dissauer

Flash Flood Watch; Rain Chances Continue

Update 4:10pm:  Showers and thunderstorms have behaved so far this afternoon.  They have mainly been confined to higher terrain west of I-25.

Data suggests much of southern Colorado should remain dry through the evening, however later tonight a few showers and thunderstorms could move in from the north.  There is plenty of moisture in the air to tap, so any thunderstorm that develops will have the potential of producing heavy rain.

The Flash Flood Watch remains in effect until 9pm this evening.

Update 9:14am:  The sun is coming up and people are getting to see what kind of damage was done from the heavy overnight rains.  Some of the rainfall totals coming in are impressive.

24 Hour Rainfall Reports - Thru 6am Sunday:

 

  • Higbee (Otero County): 4.78"
  • North Academy and Briargate Blvd - Colorado Springs (El Paso County): 3.62"
  • Pine Creek Below Old Ranch Rd (El Paso County): 2.75"
  • Rocky Ford (Otero County): 2.46"
  • La Junta (Otero County): 2.23"
  • Upper Bent Canyon Met Station (Las Animas County): 1.96"
  • Glen Cove (Teller County): 1.10"
  • Lamar (Prowers County): 0.98"

 

While the rain is needed, especially in the southeastern Plains, all of the rain in a couple hours isn't needed.  We will likely add on to some of these totals this afternoon and evening as we have another chance for showers and thunderstorms to develop.

Similar to Saturday, any thunderstorms that develop will have the potential to produce heavy downpours -- rainfall rate of 1.5" per hour are not out of the question -- as storms will likely be slow moving.

With the potential of heavy rain, and rain falling over areas with already saturated ground, the National Weather Service has issued a Flash Flood Watch for parts of southern Colorado.  The watch will be in effect from noon until 9pm Sunday. (see image above)

HISTORIC RAIN

Officially, 2.21" of rain fell in La Junta Saturday.  The amount sets a new record for the day in La Junta.  It also is the highest one-day total in over 31 years.  La Junta received 2.21" of rain April 22, 1983.

The one day total ranks 5th all-time (since 1945) for highest one-day rainfall total for the city.

RAINS TO CONTINUE

Looking at the forecast for the week ahead... If you want rain, you will love the forecast.  If you don't need anymore, immediately stop reading this article.

We have daily chances for rain in the forecast Sunday through Thursday.  Several days, Sunday-Wednesday, chances are above 45%-50%, meaning confidence is high that we will see rain.

A 2-computer model average suggests 1.73" of rain for Colordo Springs and 0.70" of rain for Pueblo through 6pm Saturday.  This works out to 279% the normal rainfall for the time period in Colorado Springs and 168% the normal for Pueblo.  Does this mean Colorado Springs will see 1.73" of rain?  No.  But it does give indications that much above normal rainfall is possible both in Colorado Springs and the region.  - Meteorologist John Dissauer

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